The rise of eurosceptic nationalist events within the European elections might complicate Ursula von der Leyen's bid to win a second time period as president of the highly effective European Fee, though she stays the frontrunner for the job.
To safe one other 5 years as head of the EU's government arm, von der Leyen wants a “particular majority” of the European Union's 27 leaders and in addition a majority within the 720-seat European Parliament.
In 2019, he narrowly handed this vote, with simply 9 extra votes than required, even supposing the centre-right European Individuals's Celebration (EPP) he represents was the biggest group within the legislature. It additionally had the help of the second largest, the Socialists, but additionally the Liberals, the third largest social gathering within the European Parliament.
How will he safe 361 votes?
The EPP stays the biggest group within the European Parliament and early seat projections confirmed that if all of the centre-left, liberals and Greens vote for it, it can have greater than the required majority of 361 votes.
Nonetheless, nationalist and Eurosceptic political teams, in addition to Germany's far-right AfD, will acquire a mixed 22 MPs out of a complete of 149. Their beneficial properties may very well be a lot bigger, relying on how lots of the now 102 non-affiliated MPs resolve to formally take part one of many Eurosceptic parliamentary teams.
That would go away a lot much less room for maneuver for von der Leyen, particularly since it’s unclear what number of MPs from her potential coalition may not vote for her, even when social gathering leaders give them their help, as Reuters notes.
A thorn in her path is her intention to work with the laborious proper In 2019, round 100 MEPs from the EPP, the centre-left and the coalition of liberals didn’t vote for von der Leyen, however she acquired the votes she wanted from right-wing Polish MPs. They’re unlikely to help her now, particularly since she helped push the EU Inexperienced Deal and was robust on the rule of regulation.
To safe her help in parliament, von der Leyen has signaled her readiness to work on main points with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which brings collectively Eurosceptic events equivalent to Italy's Meloni Brothers, Spain's Vox and the Polish “Regulation and Justice”.
Diplomats say it will shift EU policy-making additional to the correct on the proposal stage, as draft legal guidelines are ready by the Fee.
However flirting with the ECR dangers von der Leyen shedding her common allies as a result of the Socialists, Liberals and Greens have made it clear they won’t help her if she works with the far proper.
What is going to European leaders do?
Issues could also be just a little simpler with European leaders, who should nominate her for the publish earlier than a vote in parliament. Though solely 13 of the 27 leaders belong to the EPP, they may bear in mind the truth that it stays the biggest group.
Von der Leyen can also be seen by most as having accomplished a superb job over the previous 5 years, notably delivering vaccines for the EU early within the pandemic – regardless of the scandal that later emerged, which desires the outgoing Fee president to have… “particular desire' to a specific pharmaceutical firm – and with EU unity in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The certified majority wanted signifies that 15 of the 27 EU leaders, from nations that collectively characterize 65% of the Union's inhabitants, should help her candidacy.
The 13 nations led by the EPP, of which Poland is the biggest, collectively characterize solely 26% of EU residents. In observe, which means that von der Leyen additionally wants the vote of liberal French President Emmanuel Macron, in addition to the socialist German chancellor Olaf Scholz, however not essentially the nationalist Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
The “cut price” for the important thing positions doesn’t favor von der Leyen
However French help is just not assured. Macron is touting former Italian prime minister and ECB chief Mario Draghi as somebody who ought to “play a task” within the varied prime EU jobs to be determined this yr. EU diplomats level out that Draghi is just not linked to any social gathering and due to this fact doesn’t have a wider political base.
Every of the EU's main political households – the EPP, the Socialists, the Liberals, the Greens, the Left, the right-wing ECR and the far-right ID, all have their very own candidates for the European Fee's prime job.
And what makes issues much more sophisticated for Ursula von der Leyen is that the highest Fee job can be a part of a bundle of prime EU jobs to be determined this yr, with political teams buying and selling their help not just for political guarantees, but additionally for key positions of their representatives.
in.gr
