SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections noticed each important beneficial properties for far-right events – in France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European Individuals’s Social gathering (EPP), which noticed its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This strengthened the EPP’s position as a central participant within the European Parliament and a key voice in EU coverage and management appointments.
The massive winners amongst far-right events had been Marine Le Pen’s Nationwide Rally in France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, that means the far proper’s voices might be extra influential within the European Parliament on points starting from immigration to Ukraine to spending on the whole.
To research the winners and losers within the EU elections and their influence on European affairs, The Cipher Temporary spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and at the moment President of the EPP’s suppose tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Research. Dzurinda mentioned the potential influence of the elections in a dialog with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Temporary’s Chief Worldwide Correspondent. Dzurinda additionally spoke concerning the “big problem” of disinformation campaigns in Europe, and voiced help for more durable controls over social media content material.
THE CONTEXT
The middle-right European Individuals’s Social gathering (EPP) secured 190 seats within the European Parliament within the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has 1 / 4 of the physique’s 720 seats, making it finest poised to set European Union.
Far-right teams additionally made main beneficial properties throughout the bloc, together with in France and Italy. General, some 150 seats within the European Parliament had been received by far-right events.
Ursula von der Leyen is in search of a second time period as president of the European Fee. She is a transparent frontrunner, because the lead candidate of the European Individuals’s Social gathering.
French President Emmanuel Macron referred to as for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after beneficial properties by France’s far-right within the European Parliament elections.
U.Ok. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak additionally has referred to as for a snap election, in Britain’s case for July 4, months sooner than normal elections had been anticipated.
THE INTERVIEW
Mikuláš Dzurinda
Mikuláš Dzurinda is the previous prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held varied positions in authorities since first getting into politics in 1990. As soon as he turned prime minister and fashioned a coalition authorities in 1998, Dzurinda launched far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to start the method of becoming a member of the EU and NATO. After being re-elected in 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to turn into a member of the EU and NATO in 2004, a course of which he actively took half in from the start. Slovakia gained independence in 1993.
This interview has been evenly edited for brevity and readability.
The Cipher Temporary: A lot of the worldwide media reported concerning the far-right beneficial properties on the EU elections. How do you are taking the outcomes of the elections?
Dzurinda: I don’t suppose that the scenario is so dramatic. Look, it’s true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some beneficial properties, however we, the European Individuals’s Social gathering, received much more. I’m reasonably extra optimistic than pessimistic. I’m joyful as a result of my household, the European Individuals’s Social gathering, received closely and that’s big. I’d say there’s a big coalition potential on our aspect.
The Cipher Temporary: What do you concentrate on the ends in particular person international locations – about Germany, for instance, and Hungary? There have been some sudden outcomes, possibly in each, and in Slovakia as properly.Dzurinda: You’re proper. However look, let’s begin with the primary. In my eyes, the worst is France. As a result of Madame Le Pen isn’t solely very robust as of late, she can be very harmful in my thoughts and France issues rather a lot. We each know that very properly.
A greater scenario is in Germany. On one aspect, the AFD (Various for Germany) can be harmful and so they completed in second place, successful over the socialists. There may be additionally big excellent news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the long run German chancellor, will assist Europe and transatlantic relations rather a lot.
Even in Hungary, at first sight, you will be pessimistic as a result of Viktor Orban remains to be there. However there may be additionally big excellent news in Hungary. The brand new chief of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored nearly 30%. He’s younger, he’s charismatic. He needs to affix the European Individuals’s Social gathering, our household, so I take Hungary (as) a constructive reasonably than unfavourable.The Cipher Temporary: He created the celebration three months in the past – and that’s what was shocking to all people in Hungary, that in a single day he gained this unbelievable variety of votes and seats.
Dzurinda: Precisely, and it demonstrates that folks possibly are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians notice very properly that the EU is a good challenge, that this can be very essential additionally for them, for the Hungarians. The identical scenario in Slovakia – I’m very sad as a result of we, the EPP household, suffered – we misplaced three of 4 MEPs. However once more, the excellent news is that our liberal political celebration received the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) Fico. So there may be additionally an excellent hope in Slovakia, and ultimately we are going to beat these anti-European forces.
The Cipher Temporary: Let’s discuss a bit extra about France. President Macron referred to as early elections in France primarily based on the outcomes of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is {that a} good resolution? Unhealthy resolution?The Cipher Temporary: It’s possibly a reasonably chaotic resolution. I can think about how depressed Mr. Macron turned after watching the ultimate end result. And on the opposite aspect, as a politician, I can perceive that one thing needed to be completed by him. So to some extent, his resolution to name for a snap election will be understood. I anticipate a brand new cohabitation in France, when Mr. Macron will keep because the president of the nation and the federal government might be dominated by the Nationwide Rally, (the celebration of ) Madame Le Pen, with possibly a brand new star, a brand new prime minister. There’s a saying that the whole lot dangerous comes with one thing good, and possibly the excellent news is that the celebration of Madame Le Pen might be actually incompetent after operating the nation for half a yr, one yr or two years, we are going to see. However anyway, it’s a shocking growth there.
The Cipher Temporary: So possibly that’s what President Macron is relying on – to allow them to fail?
Dzurinda: Perhaps. Perhaps it’s to some extent an emotional resolution, a chaotic resolution. However on the opposite aspect, there may be additionally one thing rational past that.
The Cipher Temporary: Let’s speak about (European Fee President) Ursula von der Leyen. It looks as if her positions are very robust and she or he made it identified that she needs a second time period because the president. How do you suppose her probabilities look? There have been conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as properly. Do you suppose that’s doable?
Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s place in the present day is far stronger than earlier than the elections. Some individuals are drained or fed up along with her, as a result of don’t overlook, we went by means of main crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and final however not least, we confronted the warfare of Russia in opposition to Ukraine. So one can think about that some individuals had been a bit drained with this fee. However after the elections, it’s clear that she has completed an excellent job. She was very affected person. She was capable of attain compromises. And very properly that Europe relies on compromise.
So in the present day I’m fairly optimistic. And I consider that many individuals, and lots of MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, might have been hesitating about her, however now they notice very properly that there’s just one possibility left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And that is my expectation.
In terms of technique, she’s performed properly in my eyes. She says, Let’s speak about three main points: The primary is the rule of regulation, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European Home. And quantity three is Ukraine, and I’m prepared to speak to each political faction who’s following and respecting these three primary rules.
She is opening the door not just for the Greens from the left, but in addition from the ECR from the best. Madame Meloni made us shocked previously. The woman isn’t solely very rational, but in addition devoted to democracy, rule of regulation, and final however not least, to Ukraine as properly.
The Cipher Temporary: Do you suppose there might be a brand new (European) excessive commissioner for protection?
Dzurinda: I’d vote for that. Perhaps you can be shocked. However on the Marten Centre, the suppose tank of the Individuals’s Social gathering, we got here up with the thought of European protection as an integral a part of NATO in 2016. On the time, I used to be confronted by many individuals in Europe (asking), What do I would like? However we thought, particularly after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the scenario is critical. And I nonetheless consider that this case could be very critical. America is busy, and might be very, very busy with China, with the Indo-Pacific, and we’ve Ukraine. That is our neighbor, our quick neighborhood. Now we’ve the Center East disaster and lots of different challenges. We should be stronger, and we have to turn into a dependable, full-fledged accomplice of the USA on this transatlantic household.The Cipher Temporary: Now we have snap elections developing within the UK, in France. Now we have elections in the USA. What are your expectations of those elections and what do you suppose their influence could be on transatlantic relations?
Dzurinda: It is a essential problem. The axis between the USA and the UK was so essential and essential within the time of the Chilly Struggle, for safety, for the way forward for transatlantic relations and democratic international locations.
In these instances, possibly there may be not a lot cause to be optimistic, however I need to be optimistic. I believe as a result of custom and in addition as a result of understanding that we want one another. Even in the USA, I’m not so tragically pessimistic. In terms of the potential victory of Donald Trump, I consider that this axis between the UK and the USA will proceed, and that the EU ought to assist. The EU ought to contribute on this course to spice up this custom of the axis.
The largest query mark in my eyes is France. On one aspect, the French president could be very robust. You realize very properly that he has very robust competence. On the opposite aspect, I’m pondering increasingly more concerning the subsequent presidential elections in France. If the development continues, it implies that Madame Le Pen on the finish of the day will turn into the French president. On this case, I consider that she is going to modify a bit her strategy. Everybody was shocked by Madame Meloni’s insurance policies (in Italy). I consider that additionally within the case of Marine Le Pen we could also be shocked. Consider me, I’ve some expertise, and the phrase seems completely different if you happen to look (on the scenario) if you’re on the horse, in comparison with when you’re standing subsequent to the horse – the scenario is totally completely different. You may have duty. Persons are not solely not solely watching however anticipating.The Cipher Temporary: I’d like to speak to you about disinformation. These days, in democracies, this has been a really massive problem. In some circumstances, there are claims that disinformation truly performed some position within the end result of the elections. Did you see it as a difficulty throughout these elections within the EU? Do you see it as a bigger problem and do you have got any options on tips on how to counter it?
Dzurinda: There’s a big problem going through us – this disinformation and propaganda. We’re very joyful that we’re free, and you’ll write what you need or you may publish on social media, however what we miss is the connection between freedom and duty. So now we should always suppose extra critically about this second dimension of duty. I’m going to say one thing unpopular: (we should always take into consideration) tips on how to management social media, tips on how to make individuals accountable for the whole lot which they’re publishing.
It isn’t straightforward. Russian propaganda particularly – it is vitally, very influential. It occurs not solely to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the international locations of the previous communist bloc. It occurs in France, it occurs in Greece, in Italy, that is actually an enormous, big problem laying forward of us. And it’s not simply social media media shops. There are additionally many operations of diplomats, official diplomats within the embassies in our international locations.
The Cipher Temporary: And do you see that individuals are waking as much as it, or individuals are objecting to it in any manner?
Dzurinda: Not sufficiently. It is rather patchy. For some individuals, it’s simpler to consider in such catchy eventualities.
The Cipher Temporary:And more often than not these eventualities are very emotional.
Dzurinda: Not solely emotional, but in addition linked or associated to your difficulties. In a free world, you haven’t solely the winners, you have got additionally individuals which can be dissatisfied and even individuals who misplaced rather a lot – and propaganda, disinformation, particularly from the Kremlin, could be very, very efficient to deal with, to succeed in out to those individuals.
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