Who will win the General Election? Pollster John Curtice’s final prediction

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice gave a last prediction forward of the polls opening within the basic election.

British voters are heading to polling stations on Thursday to solid their ballots, six weeks after prime minister Rishi Sunak sought to shock his opponents by calling the 4 July election sooner than anticipated.

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With Sir Keir Starmer’s celebration sustained its roughly 20-point lead within the polls over the course of the marketing campaign, skilled Prof Curtice shared his last ideas in an opinion piece printed earlier than voting started at 7am on Thursday.

Wanting a dramatic turnaround, after the ultimate opinion polls printed on Wednesday the veteran polling skilled had prompt that “it appears to be like as if Sir Keir Starmer will grow to be prime minister on Friday”.

“What stays unsure is simply how badly issues may prove for the Conservatives,” the College of Strathclyde professor of politics wrote for the Day by day Telegraph.

Certainly one of two key uncertainties highlighted by Prof Curtice was how self-declared undecided voters will in the end solid their poll – with 2019 Tory voters estimated to be twice as more likely to inform pollsters they “don’t know” how they’ll vote than those that voted Labour 5 years in the past.

Labelling this one among many signs of the unpopularity the Tories have struggled to flee because the implosion of Liz Truss’s premiership, Prof Curtice stated: “Many undecideds are as sad with the Conservatives as those that say they’re going to vote in a different way this time round – they simply are usually not certain what to do in consequence.

“Nonetheless, if any group of voters are going to float again to the Conservatives within the last hours the undecideds are most likely the most certainly to take action. However even when all of them finally vote for the celebration they backed in 2019, there are usually not sufficient of them to do greater than put a 3 or four-point dent in Labour’s lead.”

Prof Curtice additionally warned {that a} key message of the numerous MRP megapolls of the marketing campaign has been that help for the Tories was falling extra closely in constituencies it’s making an attempt to defend.

Partially, that is “arithmetically inevitable” provided that there are greater than 100 constituencies through which the celebration’s share of the vote in 2019 was lower than the 25 per cent by which latest polls have prompt it should fall throughout the UK, he stated.

However there’s additionally uncertainty about how the Tory vote will maintain up in lots of constituencies on account of the inclusion of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK celebration.

Whereas Reform opted to not stand in Tory-held seats in 2019, there is no such thing as a such pact in place this time round, which means that “no matter they win this time in these seats – primarily on the expense of the Conservatives – might be a rise on zero”, stated Prof Curtice.

“Nevertheless the polls don’t agree on simply how robust this sample will show to be,” he stated, including: “Mr Sunak has to hope that it proves not so robust in spite of everything.”