Next tropical weather threat is forming in the Caribbean. Will it move towards Florida’s Gulf Coast?

The final day of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Nov. 30, however as we close to that ending line, the Caribbean has different ideas in thoughts, with a possible tropical system brewing.  

The Nationwide Hurricane Heart mentioned Wednesday afternoon that Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 has fashioned within the western Caribbean. If it reaches tropical storm power, the subsequent identify on the record is Sara. 

Hurricane hunters took off from Biloxi, Mississippi, at 12 p.m. ET Wednesday en route to analyze this space and decide the power and construction of the creating climate system. One other flight is scheduled for Thursday morning for extra monitoring. 

With the low stress system in place within the western Caribbean, circumstances have been favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Forecast fashions take within the present environmental components together with historic information to compute “spaghetti plots” of the place programs might monitor. Every mannequin makes use of completely different computations, which explains how the forecast monitor is an output of the consensus from these fashions.  

This technique’s power is set primarily based on how a lot gas it has — components corresponding to being in a good setting over heat waters, low wind shear, no intercepting fronts — and the way lengthy it stays in these favorable circumstances. Irrespective of its power, the forecast fashions have it lingering within the western Caribbean via the weekend earlier than turning to the north and into the Gulf of Mexico early subsequent week. 

After coming into the Gulf, the consensus of the forecast fashions has it making a right-hand flip and heading towards Florida by late subsequent week. 

Loads can occur between now and subsequent week and circumstances can rapidly change, however areas like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands must brace for heavy rains within the subsequent few days. Florida residents ought to proceed to watch the forecast as updates are available in. 

Extra from CBS Information