Immigration and crime had been as soon as once more central themes all through the US presidential election marketing campaign. The assumption that immigration drives up crime is likely one of the oldest – and strongest – convictions held by the general public, spanning over a century within the US and elsewhere.
This view stays deeply rooted regardless of mounting proof on the contrary, largely due to politicians resembling Donald Trump, who’re all too eager to amplify this narrative. Since his first presidential marketing campaign announcement in June 2015, Trump has persistently linked immigration to crime.
At the moment, he acknowledged: “When Mexico sends its folks, they’re not sending their finest. They’re sending those who have a lot of issues … They’re bringing medicine, they’re bringing crime.” He has since stepped up this rhetoric.
Within the closing stretch of his latest presidential marketing campaign, he made claims resembling: “The corrupt media is outraged that I maintain speaking about migrant crime and the migrant crime epidemic. It’s the worst factor that’s occurred to our nation in 50 years. They’re taking up our small cities and cities.”
In accordance with survey proof from the Pew Analysis Heart, an American thinktank primarily based in Washington DC, immigration and crime had been two of the highest three points for Trump voters within the 2024 election, after the financial system.
However what does the proof actually present? Our evaluation reveals that research persistently discover no causal hyperlink between immigration and elevated crime throughout quite a lot of nations. Analysis from the US, together with each older and more moderen research, in addition to analysis on Italy and the UK, demonstrates that immigration doesn’t have a big influence on crime charges.
Our paper additionally offers new proof from Europe that reinforces this conclusion. After analysing 15 years of information on immigration inflows and crime charges throughout 216 areas in 23 European nations, we discovered no vital hyperlink between immigration ranges and crime charges.
Certainly, via the applying of strong causal strategies, our findings display that even in areas experiencing substantial immigration, crime charges don’t rise – and will even decline barely – as immigration will increase.
Why perceptions and actuality diverge
One of many fundamental the reason why the assumption that immigration drives crime has persevered for thus lengthy is the affect of media and political rhetoric. Throughout an election marketing campaign, for instance, selective protection and focused political messages can gasoline public fears.
In Chile, the place the foreign-born inhabitants tripled over a decade within the early 2000s amid a booming financial system, public concern about crime intensified and demand for personal safety elevated. Nonetheless, analysis signifies that this surge in immigration had no influence on crime charges, and that intense media protection performed a big function in shaping and amplifying public misperception.
Such unfavorable messaging, although efficient (as exemplified by Trump’s profitable marketing campaign), typically diverges sharply from actuality. Creating insurance policies that target the social and financial integration of immigrants, quite than assumptions primarily based on concern, can promote safer and extra cohesive communities.
Allison Dinner / EPA
This isn’t to say migrants are usually not concerned in crime. In actual fact, immigrants are sometimes over-represented within the jail populations of many host nations.
However the truth this doesn’t result in an increase in crime charges, based on our evaluation, could possibly be as a result of immigrant populations are sometimes too small to change crime charges considerably. And additionally it is potential that some type of offender substitution happens, the place immigrants exchange natives in native “crime markets”.
One strand of analysis has explored whether or not the over-representation of immigrants in crime statistics could stem from exterior elements, resembling restricted authorized standing or restricted financial alternatives, quite than any inherent felony propensity.
Our evaluate highlights how authorized work permits and secure employment are immediately linked to reductions in crime charges. For instance, in circumstances the place sure Jap European immigrants to different nations in Europe had been granted authorized work permits, their crime charges dropped by over 50%.
Alexanderstock23 / Shutterstock
That is per separate analysis that finds that granting immigrants authorized standing can result in vital reductions in felony exercise, and that insurance policies increasing authorized entry to work may also help cut back crime charges amongst immigrant populations.
In actual fact, one research from March 2024 that examined long-term tendencies within the US revealed that immigrants as we speak are a lot much less prone to be imprisoned, in contrast with the Nineteen Sixties. The identical research attributes this discount in crime to higher work alternatives and extra secure household constructions amongst male immigrants. These insights present a pathway towards insurance policies that worth integration over exclusion.
Increasing entry to authorized work, significantly for asylum seekers and different weak teams, might foster safer communities. However restrictive insurance policies targeted on criminalising undocumented immigrants or barring them from employment could, paradoxically, improve crime.
Because the US considers its strategy to immigration, prioritising causal proof over fear-driven narratives might pave the best way for insurance policies that profit each immigrants and the communities they be a part of. By fostering financial participation and addressing public misperceptions, we will construct fairer, safer societies for all.
