We spoke to Natia Seskuria, an affiliate fellow on the Royal United Companies suppose tank.
Alex Thomson: The place do we predict that is going to go? As a result of it’s a standoff, isn’t it, for the time being?
Natia Seskuria: I feel issues are escalating fairly shortly in Georgia. And clearly, at the moment’s resolution to elect any person who was completely in no place to change into the president of Georgia will, I suppose, additional escalate the tensions, which have already been fairly vital.
Alex Thomson: It’s going to antagonise the folks exterior and past, isn’t it?
Natia Seskuria: Completely. Particularly on condition that the president, the present president of Georgia, who could be very a lot seen as a pro-Western chief, she mentioned that she is not going to step down due to the truth that the elections, parliamentary elections, should not claimed to be legit.
Alex Thomson: Can she follow that? That’s fairly a declare to make, individuals are actually drawing their strains within the sand right here, aren’t they?
Natia Seskuria: Completely. That is a rare disaster. I feel probably the most vital disaster in Georgia that we’ve got seen prior to now decade or so. And I feel she will certainly attempt to follow her phrases, as a result of that is all about Georgia’s democratic future, Georgia’s European future. And he or she’s seen as somebody who can lead the nation in the direction of that manner.
Alex Thomson: If it involves it, which manner, and I recognize that is onerous to reply, would the safety equipment within the nation, the military, the police and so forth, which manner are they going to leap? As a result of there’s two clear selections right here earlier than them?
Natia Seskuria: Completely. The police forces have been already just about a part of these protests as a result of we’ve got seen some very disturbing footage which indicated that the police had been utilizing extreme pressure. I think that it will proceed, sadly. However in the case of the military, I feel that’s the most important query, as a result of the loyalty of the military has by no means been examined earlier than. And I feel in the case of the Western affect, the obvious establishment which has been uncovered to the advantages of Western Georgian cooperation, is the military.
Alex Thomson: You talked about Western affect. Is there Western affect right here? Macron’s made some feedback about it, however in all honesty, the EU can’t do a lot about this by way of motion and might make rhetoric and make noises and so forth. However that’s about it, isn’t it?
Natia Seskuria: I feel the EU nonetheless has some leverage right here by way of, there’s a dialogue, as an illustration, about imposing sanctions, which could be very a lot a tough resolution given that there’s Hungary, clearly, which could be very a lot pleasant to the present Georgian Dream authorities. However on the similar time, I feel the EU has been extra absent than current in the case of this disaster. And this disaster, as you realize, is all about Georgia’s European future. And the EU integration is the core of the calls for that individuals who have been out into the streets for 17 days now are requesting from the federal government.
Alex Thomson: Give us a way, is that this a authorities, a type of pro-Moscow authorities, which is actually out of line with the folks, or are they listening to the voice of individuals? The place broadly do Georgians stand, or are they merely divided on whether or not it’s pro-Moscow or pro-EU?
Natia Seskuria: I feel prior to now two years or so, the consensus among the many public has been that the federal government could be very a lot shifting in the direction of Moscow as a result of previous to that, the federal government was claiming that they had been pro-EU, pro-Nato, which is and I feel it’s crucial to focus on that 86 per cent of the Georgian inhabitants helps the nation’s integration into the EU. In order that’s a really excessive quantity. However these days we’ve got seen that they’ve launched a set of legal guidelines, as an illustration, the overseas brokers legislation, the anti-LGBTQIA legislation. And this means that that is very a lot Russian impressed selections.
