The Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, as soon as the enfant horrible of European politics and the herald of “intolerant democracy”, is attracting an rising cohort of admirers. But these mini-Orbáns might discover their path much less assured, and the longer term needn’t be as darkish because it appears.
“Austria underneath Kickl: Orbán Subsequent Door,” writes Patrick Guyton for the German each day Frankfurter Rundschau, responding to the chance that the neighbouring nation shall be led by a far-right chancellor, Herbert Kickl, for the primary time since 1945.
The Freedom Social gathering (FPÖ) chief, who led his occasion to victory within the autumn 2024 parliamentary elections with 28.8% of the vote, brazenly identifies Hungarian prime minister as his political position mannequin. Based on Guyton, this growth raises issues about Austria’s shift in the direction of an intolerant democracy of the Hungarian kind, notably on account of Kickl’s stance on media, minorities, and the European Union.
Whereas some FPÖ representatives, equivalent to Matthias Krenn from the occasion’s financial wing, current extra average positions and reject extremism, critics warn of a “cultural warfare from the suitable” aimed toward an “anti-democratic restructuring of the state”. Guyton notes that the political scenario has sparked protests, which fall far wanting the depth of demonstrations towards former FPÖ chief Jörg Haider within the early Nineties when the FPÖ first entered authorities. Based on the German journalist, this will point out a worrying dulling impact in society in the direction of far-right tendencies.
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Fears of an “Orbánisation” of Austria underneath Herbert Kickl are overblown, argues Eszter Kováts, a Hungarian political scientist on the College of Vienna. Writing in Die Presse, she factors out that the FPÖ chief lacks each the unconventional edge and – crucially – the constitutional supermajority that allowed Viktor Orbán to reshape Hungary after 2010. But the parallels are putting: each males share a expertise for provocation and deploy an identical rhetorical trinity: opposition to migration, “gender politics” and the warfare in Ukraine. Their populist playbook depends closely on dividing society into “us” and “them”. Mr Kickl’s ascendancy, Ms Kováts suggests, stems from mainstream events’ rising disconnect with voters, notably on immigration. Whereas Mr Kickl might look to Budapest for inspiration, his political circumstances extra intently mirror these of Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Geert Wilders within the Netherlands. These populist leaders, regardless of dire predictions, have proved extra constrained by institutional checks than their Hungarian counterpart. The “Melonisation” or “Wildersisation” of Austria, Ms Kováts argues, presents a extra becoming template than the spectre of Orbánism.
Simply throughout the Danube from Austria, one other would-be Orbán is testing the bounds of his energy. Robert Fico, Slovakia’s prime minister and chief of the nominally social-democratic SMER occasion, made waves with an unannounced pre-Christmas pilgrimage to Moscow to fulfill Vladimir Putin. The go to’s particulars stay shrouded in thriller, with even primary details about attendees and preparations withheld from public scrutiny, notes Dušan Mikušovič of Denník N, a Bratislava information web site.
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Mr Fico’s solely account of the assembly got here by way of social media, the place he spoke of discussing Ukraine’s navy scenario, peace prospects, and his intention to “normalise” Slovak-Russian relations. He subsequently threatened to chop electrical energy provides to Ukraine in retaliation for its halting of Russian fuel transit to the EU. The Moscow go to, justified as a part of his “sovereign coverage to all 4 cardinal factors”, matches a sample: Denník N’s evaluation exhibits the prime minister’s diplomatic compass more and more factors east and south, quite than west or north.
But Slovakia’s drift towards illiberalism has hit headwinds. A break up in HLAS-SD, Fico’s coalition associate, has value him his parliamentary majority. In the meantime, greater than 100,000 protesters have taken to the streets demanding clear governance, rule of regulation, and rejection of Russian overtures. Mr Fico’s response – claiming a 3rd of protesters had been Ukrainian and denouncing the demonstrations as a foreign-backed coup try – has solely fuelled the flames. As Matúš Kostolný observes, the scenario echoes 2018, when the homicide of journalist Ján Kuciak pressured Fico’s resignation regardless of his parliamentary majority. “It could get messy,” Kostolny predicts, “however Fico is completed.”
Viktor Orbán and Herbert Hickl might quickly welcome one other ally from the Patriots for Europe faction within the European Parliament to the membership of European prime ministers. In neighbouring Czech Republic, ANO occasion chief and Slovak-born billionaire Andrej Babiš is staging a comeback. Regardless of his restricted rhetorical expertise, Babiš has demonstrated a outstanding skill to attraction to voters throughout the political spectrum, with January polls by financial portal E15 placing his help at 35%.
Babiš, who was changed in 2021 by Petr Fiala’s liberal-conservative coalition, is poised to return to energy. Whereas Fiala’s authorities has achieved notable success in overseas coverage, notably in supporting Ukraine, managing the refugee disaster, and guaranteeing vitality safety, it has struggled with home reforms and public communication, resulting in record-low reputation.
Thinker and commentator Petr Fischer, writing for Czech Radio, attributes Babiš’s success to his political acumen and pragmatic strategy. “The 2025 model of Andrej Babiš demonstrates with each phrase that his ANO motion is a part of a broader, important world present that’s taking management of the world and returning to frequent sense,” Fischer observes sarcastically. He argues that Trump offered a template for the ideologically depleted ANO, which European patriots at the moment are copying for assured success. “They’ve MAGA, Make America Nice Once more, we have now MEGA, Make Europe Nice Once more,” declared the previous and sure future Czech Prime Minister.
Based on Fischer, the trail to energy follows a common blueprint: systematic erosion of public debate via damaging social media campaigns, privatisation of public area serving the pursuits of probably the most vocal, and politics outlined by the struggle towards perceived enemies – immigrants, financial opponents, and, in Europe’s case, EU establishments.
The arms pipeline: How Czech weapons attain Russian consumers
A complicated community of middlemen has made a mockery of EU sanctions on arms exports to Russia, reveals a putting investigation by Kristina Vejnbender. Her reporting for Investigace.cz platform exhibits how Czech weapons are reaching Russian consumers via an elaborate maze of Central Asian and Turkish intermediaries.
At Moscow’s current Orel Expo 2024, Czech firearms had been brazenly displayed, although at eye-watering costs – triple what they value in Prague. Vejnbender’s investigation, carried out with The Insider and different media shops, traces how Kazakh and Turkish corporations function handy conduits: in April 2024 alone, a Kazakh agency imported a considerable cargo of Czech ammunition, whereas a Turkish firm organized supply of high-end optical tools.
The numbers inform a compelling story: Czech arms exports to Kazakhstan have surged thirtyfold since 2018. Why such urge for food for Czech weapons? As consultants instructed Vejnbender, Russia’s home arsenal is exhibiting its age, and Czech “sporting” weapons can readily serve navy functions.
