What to know about the Ukraine-Russia war and efforts to end it : NPR

KYIV, TBILISI AND PARIS — Almost daily for the final three years, Russian drones and missiles have hit Ukraine, putting energy vegetation, hospitals, colleges and houses.

“That is a part of our life,” says Volodymyr Silvanovskyi, a 63-year-old customs official from the northeastern metropolis of Sumy. “After which the day comes when your property is the goal.”

A couple of weeks in the past, a Russian drone ripped into the condominium constructing the place Silvanovskyi lives. He was turning off the TV to go to mattress when the blast blew out his home windows and jammed his entrance door shut. He pressured his approach out with a hammer, then checked on his neighbors, a pair of their 60s, solely to see their complete condominium caved in. He came upon later that they had been amongst 9 residents killed within the assault.

“This occurs daily, all over the place in Ukraine,” he says.

Hundreds of civilians have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Ukrainians need the warfare to finish, however not on Russia’s phrases. That will be rewarding the aggressor, they are saying, and an unequal peace deal may result in extra warfare. But Russia’s bargaining energy has elevated with President Trump returning to the White Home final month.

Trump got here to workplace with vows to finish the warfare shortly — and he’s performing on them. First there was a telephone name with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Inside days, American and Russian delegations had been gathered in Saudi Arabia to start to speak specifics. The conferences final week marked the primary direct high-level contact between the 2 sides since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion — and a stark shift in U.S. coverage.

The sudden return of U.S.-Russian diplomacy after years of absence has shocked Ukraine and America’s conventional allies in Europe — who’ve been sidelined from negotiations for now. President Trump’s false claims that Ukraine bore accountability for beginning the warfare are additional trigger for concern amongst Ukrainians and Europeans that the American chief is eyeing a decision closely tilted in Moscow’s favor.

As negotiations transfer ahead, listed here are key developments to keep watch over — each relating to the warfare and efforts to finish it.

U.S.-Russia détente

President Trump and Putin are each praising the Saudi talks, which came about Feb. 17, as a constructive step towards normalizing ties between Washington and Moscow.

The obvious détente marks a drastic departure in U.S. coverage towards the Kremlin: The Biden White Home had sought to isolate and sanction Russia over its full-scale invasion of its neighbor. In distinction, President Trump has reached out to Moscow to work collectively to finish the warfare and restore relations.

For now, which means an settlement to extend employees ranges at embassies and discover what Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls “unimaginable financial and funding alternatives” — an acknowledgement that sanctions aid is on provide.

The 2 sides agreed to proceed negotiations on Ukraine. Additionally beneath dialogue: a collection of face-to-face conferences between Trump and Putin, together with probably in Moscow and Washington, within the coming weeks or months.

Ukraine shedding an ally? 

In the meantime, Ukrainians are bewildered, questioning how the U.S. went so shortly from isolating the Kremlin to showing to embrace it.

The Trump administration’s resolution to thaw U.S. ties with Russia is a blow to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has been attempting to forge a brand new relationship with Trump regardless of a difficult historical past that dates again to Trump’s first time period and Ukraine’s function in his impeachment.

Whereas Trump was a candidate in final 12 months’s presidential election, Zelenskyy approached him with a plan to change a few of Ukraine’s crucial uncooked supplies for continued army help.

A deal is beneath negotiation, however Ukraine was not included in talks between Russia and the U.S. final week. Trump is now repeating Kremlin speaking factors — that Ukraine, not Russia, began the warfare; that Zelenskyy is an illegitimate chief unpopular with Ukrainians. Zelenskyy, who was elected in 2019 and has a 63% approval score, publicly responded that Trump “lives in a disinformation area.”

In the meantime, at the least one member of the Trump group, the president’s particular envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, praised Zelenskyy as a “brave chief” after assembly him in Kyiv final week.

Europe’s plan

Europe has given extra in wartime help collectively to Ukraine than the U.S. — a truth EU leaders argue earns Europe a job in negotiations that might affect the way forward for the continent.

French President Emmanuel Macron and U.Okay. Prime Minister Keir Starmer are floating the concept of sending British peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. NATO member states are additionally providing to extend the proportion of their GDP spent on protection.

If the U.S. decreases or stops offering army help to Ukraine, Europe could possibly make up among the distinction. Nevertheless, the image for Europe turns into extra sophisticated if Ukraine is pressured to just accept a ceasefire deal that favors Russia. Europe will want an estimated 300,000 extra troops and an annual protection spending hike of greater than $360 billion to discourage Russia from additional aggression, based on a joint report by the Bruegel Institute in Brussels and the Kiel Institute in Germany.

Elie Tenenbaum of the Safety Research Heart on the French Institute of Worldwide Relations, says Europeans concern the Trump administration will bypass them and attempt to strong-arm Ukraine in negotiating a cope with Russia to finish the warfare.

“It is their worst nightmare,” he mentioned.

European Union leaders and allies have already met twice within the final week to handle the disaster and have mentioned publicly that they wish to be concerned in negotiations to finish the warfare.

Macron, who has lengthy advocated for a powerful European protection unbiased of the U.S., is in Washington on Monday to fulfill with Trump. Starmer can also be anticipated in Washington this week.

The place the warfare stands

When Russia launched its “particular army operation” in Ukraine in 2022, it anticipated a fast victory alongside the traces of Moscow’s blitz seizure of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. As an alternative, the battle has settled right into a warfare of attrition — with a whole bunch of hundreds lifeless or injured on each side.

Over the previous 12 months, Russian troops have made small however regular advances towards overstretched Ukrainian forces — with each side struggling vital losses. Russia has additionally repeatedly attacked Ukraine’s vitality grid, destroying a lot of it.

Ukraine has struck again, hitting Russia’s oil depots. After months of hand-wringing, the Biden administration lastly allowed Kyiv late final 12 months to make use of American-donated weapons to strike inside Russia correct. Zelenskyy mentioned in an interview earlier this 12 months that this has helped hit weapons stockpiles and management facilities, squeezing Russia’s warfare machine.

Presently, Russia holds round 20% of Ukrainian territory, together with the Crimean peninsula. The Kremlin additionally claims to have formally annexed 4 further areas of Ukraine — none of which its forces absolutely management.

Ukraine holds a sliver of Russian territory seized by its forces in a cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk area in August 2024. Zelenskyy has made clear he sees the territory as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

The negotiations

The contours of a negotiated peace are anybody’s guess.

Trump-nominated negotiators — together with his nationwide safety advisor Mike Waltz — say it will likely be a mixture of safety ensures for Ukraine and territorial concessions on all sides. However President Trump has gone on report ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine and has known as Kyiv’s need to take again seized territory impractical — in impact, critics say, bowing to 2 key Russian calls for earlier than negotiations ever started. Administration officers counter that they’re merely being sensible.

Trump’s new insistence that Zelenskyy is a “dictator with out elections” additionally dovetails with Kremlin speaking factors geared toward undermining the Ukrainian president’s legitimacy.

In the meantime, with Russian forces gaining floor, the Kremlin could not see a necessity to barter on what it believes it might obtain on the battlefield. Already, Russia seems to be hardening its stance: Moscow has dominated out any peacekeepers from NATO-member international locations in monitoring any peace settlement.

President Putin and his entourage have repeatedly insisted any settlement take into consideration “the basis of the battle” — Russian-speak for a brand new imaginative and prescient of a European safety association constructed round a neutered NATO presence in central and northern Europe. If Trump reduces the American troop presence in Europe — as some Europeans concern — Russia would possibly simply get its want.

But there are some causes to assume the Kremlin, too, would possibly desire a ceasefire sooner relatively than later. Sustaining the battle past this 12 months would require further troops — and probably an unpopular mass mobilization. Russia’s economic system additionally appears more and more risky: it has weathered Western sanctions up to now, however Russian economists level to spiraling rates of interest and inflation as indicators {that a} reckoning is coming.

NPR’s Joanna Kakissis reported from Kyiv, Charles Maynes reported from Tbilisi and Eleanor Beardsley reported from Paris. NPR producer Polina Lytvynova contributed reporting from Kyiv and Tetiana Burianova contributed from Sumy.