The third anniversary of the all-out conflict with Russia would not fairly coincide with Valentine’s Day. However the Munich Safety Convention did. But there was no discuss of affection within the conversations and speeches in Munich as European and American politicians and heads of state gathered to debate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. As a substitute, a consultant of the brand new US administration instructed the Europeans why he didn’t like Europe at this time.
Phrases about love have been a lot louder in Lviv, on the Lychakiv cemetery, the place Natalia Palamarchuk learn poems on the grave of her husband Vasyl, who died within the conflict final yr. She went to the cemetery alone, leaving her three kids at dwelling. On Valentine’s Day she wished to be alone along with her husband of 21 years. Vasyl Palamarchuk was one in every of greater than 100 Ukrainian writers and poets killed within the conflict.
It’s true that the majority Ukrainians didn’t assume an excessive amount of about Valentine’s Day this yr. After Trump’s cellphone name with Putin, some Ukrainians have been overcome with despair, whereas others have been merely livid. Social networks are nonetheless stuffed with pessimism, unhealthy emotions and dire predictions. It appears like Ukraine is on an working desk, with two surgeons bent over it, knives in hand.
However the wave of pessimism and panic in Ukrainian society started to collect pressure even earlier than Trump’s cellphone name with Putin. On the second week of February Ukrainians skilled extreme emotional swings, one in every of which was attributable to the Ukrainian parliament’s choice to permit the acquisition of two previous Russian nuclear reactors from Bulgaria for the Ukrainian nuclear energy plant at Khmelnitsky. This choice remains to be being hotly debated. Shopping for something “made in Russia” appears immoral to many Ukrainians. As well as, these reactors are outdated, want extra components, and would often have to be serviced by Russia and provided with Russian nuclear gasoline.
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After all, you should purchase American nuclear gasoline and adapt it to the reactors, however this can considerably improve the price of operating the facility plant. And through a conflict, is it acceptable to spend cash on something aside from weapons and ammunition, particularly a brand new nuclear reactor that Russia may destroy with two or three ballistic missiles?
Apparently as a way to divert the eye of Ukrainians from nuclear reactors to one thing safer, the day after the nuclear reactor choice the parliament handed a legislation establishing a nationwide day of prayer.
Any further, yearly on 24 February, Ukraine will pray for the security of nuclear reactors throughout the conflict and for the way forward for Ukraine on the whole.
Introducing the Nationwide day of prayer
Ukrainians, who’ve all the time laughed at Russian monks blessing Iskander ballistic missiles and Kalashnikov assault rifles, out of the blue awoke in a rustic with a nationwide day of prayer.
Trump’s dialog with Putin happened simply sooner or later after the legislation on the Nationwide Day of Prayer was handed – on 13 February. Their pleasant dialog, which lasted an hour and a half, gave a right away increase to the Russian financial system – Russian share costs rose and the ruble strengthened in opposition to the greenback.
It grew to become clear to Ukrainians that this was not a dialog between the chief of the democratic world and an autocratic aggressor, however between two businessmen centered on commerce relations and eager to renew mutually useful enterprise. The one factor standing in the way in which is Ukraine, whose assault has led to the worldwide, however removed from complete, isolation of the Russian Federation.
The dialog between Trump and Putin, mixed with the unusual choices of the Ukrainian parliament, has triggered one thing of a nervous breakdown even amongst some youngsters.
The 16-year-old daughter of the well-known Ukrainian playwright Natalia Vorozhbit couldn’t maintain again her tears after studying Trump’s feedback. “It’s higher to dwell underneath bombs than underneath the situations of ‘peace’ of those two cynics (Trump and Putin),” she cried. “As a result of underneath bombs there’s hope that the bomb is not going to hit you, however underneath this imposed ‘peace’ there isn’t a such hope.”
Whereas Volodymyr Zelensky spoke in Munich concerning the want for unity in Ukrainian society, plenty of distinguished human rights activists and NGOs in Ukraine criticised him.
Earlier than leaving for Munich, President Zelensky signed the Nationwide Safety and Defence Council’s choice to impose sanctions on plenty of oligarchs. The listing consists of Ukraine’s fifth president, Petro Poroshenko, who was due to this fact unable to attend the Munich convention in individual. As a substitute, he needed to spend day by day answering questions from investigators and defending himself in opposition to accusations of treason from the Nationwide Safety and Defence Council. The Petro Poroshenko Basis, which purchased arms and ammunition for the Ukrainian military, is not in a position to perform. All of Petro Poroshenko’s property have been frozen.
“It’s higher to dwell underneath bombs than underneath the situations of ‘peace’ of those two cynics (Trump and Putin)”
“Sanctions can’t be used as a device to carry to justice those that commit crimes,” the human rights organisations mentioned in a joint assertion. “Sanctions can not exchange felony accountability as a result of the ideas of justice are undermined by the political motives that information the authors of sanctions. Using sanctions as an alternative of investigation and truthful trial means the destruction of democracy in Ukraine”.
For the time being, Petro Poroshenko remains to be the chief of the opposition and the top of the European Solidarity parliamentary group. Volodymyr Zelensky has been combating him for a very long time, and this battle has reached a brand new climax, displaying Ukraine in a really unfavourable mild. Maybe the explanation for Zelensky’s efforts is the considered potential presidential elections, on which the USA has been insisting.
In any case, the sanctions imposed on the previous president don’t contribute to the unity of Ukrainian society. And with out unity, will probably be very tough for Ukrainians to get by means of the present military-political interval within the lifetime of the nation.
This isn’t nearly negotiations with Putin. It’s also about relations with the USA, which is demanding assured entry to Ukrainian uncommon earth metals. Trump has determined to place relations with Ukraine on a business foundation, together with army points. Ukraine has little room for manoeuvre. President Zelensky had promised the People these metals in trade for continued army assist. Nonetheless, the preliminary model of the settlement proposed by the US Secretary of the Treasury didn’t point out any ensures of assist or safety for Ukraine, and Zelensky didn’t signal it.
In the meantime, a big a part of the uncommon earth steel deposits are positioned within the territories occupied by Russia, together with the Donbass and a part of the Zaporizhzhya area. After all, these uncommon earth metals are of curiosity to each Russia and China, and certainly non-public Chinese language firms have already set their sights on these territories, apparently intending to construct extraction and enrichment crops. Maybe Russia plans to make use of these metals to pay China for serving to Russia in its conflict in opposition to Ukraine? Or maybe, due to sanctions, Russia is unable to develop the steel deposits by itself and wishes Chinese language funding to take advantage of them successfully.
So far, Ukrainian particular companies have recognized greater than ten non-public Chinese language firms which can be already working within the occupied Ukrainian territory, finishing up preparatory work to revive the destroyed infrastructure.
The third anniversary of the full-scale conflict with Russia and the eleventh anniversary of Russia’s first assault on Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea have attracted a brand new wave of overseas journalists to Ukraine, who’re extra concerned about Ukrainians’ opinions about the opportunity of ending the conflict this yr than within the state of affairs on the entrance.
The motion on the entrance is popping right into a stalemate. Russian troops are nonetheless advancing, though the associated fee in human lives has been very excessive and progress has been slowed by Ukraine’s efficient use of fight drones to stop the motion of Russian ammunition and tools even deep behind enemy strains.
In some locations, together with close to Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops have halted the Russian offensive and even liberated a number of settlements, pushing Russian troops again a number of kilometres.
The Ukrainian army does not likely imagine in the opportunity of signing a peace treaty with Putin. They’re decided to proceed combating, despite the fact that they complain of exhaustion and the shortage of a demobilisation system and even common rotation.
Explosive deliveries
It should be mentioned that even a job within the rear just isn’t secure for troopers. Russian particular companies used to assault army personnel away from the entrance strains by looking social networks for younger and reckless saboteurs and arsonists, however not too long ago they’ve modified their ways. They’ve tricked unsuspecting Ukrainian residents into delivering packages to a selected handle. The individual is promised cash for delivering the parcel to an unknown third social gathering.
What the deliverer doesn’t know is that the package deal is a bomb, and once they arrive calmly on the entrance of the mobilisation centre or some place else the place troopers or potential troopers are gathered, the bomb is detonated by a cellphone name from inside Russia or from the occupied territories, or typically from the town the place the bomb is positioned.
The opposite day in Mykolaiv, a lady carrying a purchasing bag approached a bunch of Ukrainian troopers and out of the blue there was an explosion. The lady and three army engineers have been killed, and 6 others have been severely wounded. This isn’t the primary such incident.
The Russian media proudly report such ‘successes’ as proof of an armed Ukrainian pro-Russian underground motion. The Russian individuals appear to want this ‘proof’ to really feel that victory for the Russian military is close to.
On 14 February, in the midst of the Munich Safety Convention, I used to be afraid {that a} related terrorist assault would occur in Kyiv or Lviv throughout the romantic railway journeys organized by the Ukrainian Railways particularly for the households of army personnel. Ukrzaliznytsia ran the “Saint Valentine’s Trains” out of Kyiv and Lviv. Navy personnel may purchase a compartment for themselves and their family members and spend two hours collectively on a practice that had no vacation spot – only a two-hour journey across the metropolis.
Thank God, the Valentine’s Day journeys went off with no single act of sabotage.
14 February is behind us, as is the Munich Safety Convention. Forward lies an unpredictable future by which Europe can not rely on US help, and Ukraine finds itself suspended between the fourth yr of full-scale conflict and negotiations with Russia – negotiations by which Europe is not going to take part and by which the American companions are extra within the velocity with which an settlement could be reached than in defending Ukrainian pursuits and attaining a simply peace.
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