The 2024 common election was the primary within the UK’s historical past to be run below a system of voter ID. When heading to the polling station, individuals may solely vote in the event that they proved their id first. This was the results of a regulation introduced in in 2023 and that had already utilized to native elections in England that 12 months.
Utilizing knowledge from the British Election Examine, we tracked individuals eligible to vote between 2023 and 2024 and located that 5% of individuals eligible to vote – practically 2 million individuals – didn’t personal any recognised voter identification. This lack of ID was concentrated amongst poorer and fewer educated voters.
In fact, missing photographic ID just isn’t essentially a everlasting state. Some individuals may have been within the strategy of renewing passports and driving licences throughout this era. All of those individuals would even have been eligible for a voter authority certificates, a type of identification introduced in with the brand new regulation – though we discovered take up of those was low.
We discovered that round 0.5% of all voters reported being turned away at polling stations because of missing ID within the native elections of 2023. We additionally discovered that 4 occasions as many individuals (round 2%) reported not voting as a result of they knew they didn’t have the appropriate ID.
The equal figures have been barely decrease on the common election of 2024, however a significant contingent nonetheless didn’t take part. Round 1.3% of electors – or over half 1,000,000 individuals – have been turned away or didn’t present up in any respect due to voter identification necessities.
Whereas administrative data can present correct numbers about how many individuals have been turned away on the polling station, they inform us little about individuals who have been discouraged from even making an attempt to vote as a result of they didn’t have the appropriate ID. So it’s clear from our evaluation that the influence of voter ID on turnout is probably going bigger than earlier estimates based mostly on polling station returns.
Who advantages?
We additionally discovered that the Conservatives have been extra prone to profit from the voter ID regulation than different events.
This isn’t shocking once we take into account demographic elements. As our analysis reveals, Conservative voters usually tend to personal ID, as a result of they’re extra prone to be older and extra prosperous. Regardless of adjustments in social patterns of occasion assist because the 2016 Brexit referendum, this sample nonetheless holds true.
The sorts of identification that are allowed below the brand new regulation – and particularly the choice to permit older individuals however not youthful individuals to make use of journey passes – exacerbates these variations.
Who didn’t have ID?
The chart above reveals the proportion missing picture ID by common election vote intention, as measured in Could 2023 (lighter bars) and Could 2024 (shaded bars), shortly earlier than the final election was referred to as.
In 2024, solely 2.4% of Conservative supporters have been prone to not have picture ID, whereas 3.8% of Labour supporters and 4.1% of Reform supporters have been missing.
One notable distinction is a rise in Liberal Democrats and non-voters with no picture identification in 2024, though that is virtually totally attributable to a change within the variety of individuals supporting the Liberal Democrats or deciding to not vote reasonably than adjustments in individuals’s precise possession of ID.
Liberal Democrat voters had the bottom proportion of supporters with out voter ID in 2023 (1.3%), however in 2024, the Liberal Democrat charge exceeded that of the Conservatives (2.9%).
There are nonetheless alternatives to mitigate the dangers posed by voter ID. Forward of the subsequent election the brand new authorities ought to prolong the types of identification allowed (particularly for these youthful than state pension age).
Enhancing public consciousness across the regulation and the supply of voter authority certificates is one other necessary step. There are additionally options {that a} system of permitting individuals to vouch for others who don’t have voter ID can be an possibility.
In an voters of 49 million, if virtually two million aren’t in a position to vote as a result of they don’t have the appropriate ID, there’s a drawback. These focused on constructing belief in our democracy ought to take into account not solely minimising electoral fraud however decreasing this quantity by as a lot as doable.