Can We Still Solve Climate Change? — Global Issues

Excessive climate appears to be multiplying, with surprising fires in Los Angeles and storms placing Europe and America’s east coast because the begin of the 12 months. U.S. President Donald Trump has introduced his nation will flip its again on the bold Paris Settlement adopted in 2015.

In the meantime, the United Nations’ newest annual summit—COP29 in Azerbaijan—resulted in November with complaints it had completed too little to alter the narrative. Some even questioned whether or not the UN’s ongoing exertions have been a waste of time, and whether or not annual international local weather summits have been nonetheless value doing?

Are issues actually so unhealthy? Let’s break down the information piece-by-piece and have a look at every situation in flip.

How unhealthy is it that we now have damaged the 1.5C ceiling?

It’s fairly unhealthy. It means we will anticipate excessive climate like heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and flooding to extend in frequency and severity. It’s additionally going to have an effect on meals manufacturing, hurt many plant and animal species, and threat sending the world over a number of “tipping factors”, resembling sooner melting of ice within the Arctic, Antarctic, and elsewhere, inflicting sea-level rise. For those who don’t like that our climate is getting extra excessive, then sadly it’s too late. We’ll all need to get used to it, and adapt accordingly.

That stated, it’s not all doom and gloom. There are some silver linings. First, the world has really been doing so much to combat again. Partly prompted by main worldwide treaties just like the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Settlement, international locations have been actively discovering methods to scale back emissions, resembling investing in inexperienced applied sciences and dealing on new insurance policies that have an effect on just about the whole lot we do.

Whether or not it’s new power effectivity programmes in our properties and places of work, efforts to guard our forests, or the rise in hybrid and electrical automobiles, so much is going on. Maybe the most important transformation has been the expansion of photo voltaic and wind energy, which is now significantly cheaper and extra environment friendly that earlier sources of electrical energy like coal or pure gasoline. The pay-off is evident, with international locations just like the UK, Sweden, and Denmark already reducing their greenhouse gasoline emissions in half because the Nineties.

One other silver lining of our efforts to chop emissions is professional projections for temperature rise in the long run. Earlier than the Paris Settlement, some have been predicting temperatures to go up by 4-6C by 2100, which might be catastrophic for humanity and the planet; an extinction occasion for contemporary civilization. Now, the estimates sit round 2-2.8C, relying on whether or not international locations honour the objectives they’ve set themselves. These numbers are nonetheless unhealthy, however nowhere close to as terrifying as they have been.

So sure, 1.5 is unhealthy and we might want to redouble our efforts to verify it doesn’t get a lot worse. However we shouldn’t surrender hope simply but.

What does President Trump’s resolution to go away the Paris Settlement imply?

Nobody can deny that U.S. management drastically helps our international efforts to fight local weather change.

Nonetheless, there are a number of explanation why we shouldn’t panic. First, as talked about above, the world is already on a long-term path to chop emissions. The brand new U.S. administration might want to “drill, child, drill,” however renewables will proceed to rise. Why? As a result of they’re cheaper than the alternate options. As an skilled enterprise chief, President Trump is aware of in addition to anybody that firms are motivated by income. They may search for probably the most cost-effective power possibility. In lots of instances, this may imply renewable power.

Secondly, even when the U.S. does depart Paris and alter its home insurance policies, there’s an inertia in methods. The outgoing Biden administration, which had pledged $3 billion for the UN’s Inexperienced Local weather Fund (GCF), has already handed over $2 billion. They’ve additionally spent a lot bigger quantities on supporting the U.S. transition to a inexperienced economic system. That is cash the brand new President won’t be able to take again. Plus, a rustic as huge and highly effective as America can’t flip its whole economic system round in a single day. For example, throughout President Trump’s first time period, emissions within the U.S. continued to fall, even when he himself didn’t assist this.

Thirdly, even American presidents aren’t all highly effective. There are numerous different pursuits and various viewpoints within the U.S. Others who may disagree with President Trump will seemingly step up and attempt to fill the hole. For example, enterprise chief Michael Bloomberg has simply introduced that he’ll assist cowl U.S. monetary obligations to the UN and its local weather work. There’s precedent for this, too. Again within the 2000s, plenty of progress was made on local weather change on the state and metropolis stage all through the U.S., despite the fact that President George W. Bush typically didn’t assist it.

Lastly, there was a shift within the centre of gravity relating to local weather change. The U.S. stays vital, however on local weather change it issues lower than it as soon as did. Underneath Presidents Obama, Biden, and Trump himself, U.S. emissions have fallen. They now signify about 11% of the worldwide whole, down from 30% in 1970. Today, U.S. emissions are dwarfed by the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). These are the international locations whose management shall be wanted within the decade to return.

There are indicators that huge company gamers are additionally turning away from their local weather pledges. For example, Blackrock simply left the Internet Zero Asset Managers coalition. What does this imply?

The Glasgow Monetary Alliance for Internet Zero (GFANZ) was introduced at COP26 in 2021. It brings collectively company leaders from the monetary providers sector to assist the transition to an bold “net-zero” emissions economic system. Nevertheless, after the latest U.S. election, some huge U.S. banks left the Internet Zero Banking Alliance, which is a part of GFANZ. Now, Blackrock has left an analogous coalition for asset managers; which can be part of GFANZ.

This isn’t excellent news. It most likely marks a symbolic victory for politicians who had been pressuring huge company pursuits to step again from their local weather pledges. In some methods, it mirrors the latest abandonment by a number of huge American firms of their DEI (variety, fairness, and inclusion) programmes.

At this stage, it’s exhausting to understand how a lot of a real influence this may have. For each firm making an attempt to appease the Trump administration by backtracking, it’s seemingly there can even be these—like insurance coverage firms—whose income are being so badly impacted by local weather change that they are going to be unlikely to alter their positions.

Was COP29 actually a failure?

No. Though the newest annual UN local weather summit didn’t lead to any huge breakthroughs, it did obtain some modest successes. For example, rich industrialized nations agreed to extend annual funding for growing international locations from US$100 billion to US$300 billion yearly by 2030. That is far lower than the US$1.3 trillion many consultants consider is required to fight local weather change, although that quantity was included as a objective for 2035. Though US$300 billion is an enchancment on the earlier quantity, it’s not what growing international locations have been hoping for, which was nearer to $500 billion by 2030.

Different outcomes from COP29 embody settlement on requirements for carbon markets, which suggests carbon buying and selling is more likely to improve and new funds may movement to the World South. What’s extra, a number of international locations introduced that they’d strengthen their pledges—generally known as Nationally Decided Contributions (NDCs)—underneath the Paris Settlement. These included Azerbaijan, Brazil, the UK, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Shouldn’t COP29 have completed much more, given the urgency of the local weather disaster? As we now have famous in an earlier article for IPS (“Are Local weather Summits a Waste of Time?”), the UN local weather course of is designed to assist us make incremental progress, 12 months after 12 months, decade after decade.

And it has. It might look like the tempo of change is just too gradual—and it typically is—however the UN has stored the ball shifting over many, a few years, and may take credit score for serving to us ahead way more than we notice.

Isn’t Azerbaijan an oil producer? Why maintain conferences on local weather change in fossil gas states?

Sure, it’s. In actual fact, many international locations which have hosted the annual UN local weather summit up to now have additionally been fossil gas states. These embody the UAE, UK, Poland, South Africa, India, and Indonesia. In actual fact, Poland (a significant coal producer), has hosted the local weather COPs thrice!

Why is that this? The internet hosting of the COPs is determined by the related regional groupings of the UN. So, every area will get its flip each few years to determine who hosts.

The very fact is, many international locations produce fossil fuels, and infrequently these are those with the monetary and organizational capability to host giant occasions like a UN summit. As we now have argued up to now (“World Cooperation on Local weather Change: What Have We Achieved and What Must Occur Subsequent?”), we consider hosts needs to be judged not on their fossil gas standing, however on whether or not the annual COP they host is a hit.

If we choose the hosts by what the UN summits obtain, then fossil gas international locations have a combined report. COP29 was not a breakout success, however the latest COPs in Egypt and the UAE achieved a stunning breakthrough, with settlement on a loss and harm fund. Additionally, a few of these fossil gas producers are slowly transitioning their economies away from promoting oil, coal and gasoline. Azerbaijan, as an example, is selling its tourism sector.

Are UN local weather COPs nonetheless value holding? Do they should change?

As talked about above, we consider UN local weather summits are value it, as they’ve helped the world make vital progress over the previous thirty years. That stated, some folks assume the COPs want to alter how they function. For example, there have been 65,000 folks at COP29, however only some thousand have been really concerned within the UN negotiations. Isn’t this an indication one thing must be completed in a different way?

We predict the critics miss the purpose. Whereas it’s true that the UN local weather COPs have grow to be giant and unwieldy, in addition they serve many functions. First, the world pays consideration to those mega-events, which ratchet up the political stress. Prime ministers, presidents, and different world leaders typically attend, realizing the eyes of the world are on them. This, too, raises expectations and generally results in higher outcomes.

Not solely that, however the COPs are sometimes teeming with other people from each sector and nation, all keen to speak about what they’re doing, hearken to others, and construct networks, coalitions, and alliances. Typically, these result in highly effective “coalitions of the keen”. The Glasgow Monetary Alliance for Internet Zero (GFANZ) talked about earlier is an instance of this, as is the World Methane Pledge, a coalition uniting 159 collaborating international locations (and the European Fee) in pursuit of a objective to chop methane emissions 30 % beneath 2020 ranges by 2030.

On different events, individuals can generate new concepts that finally find yourself within the formal UN negotiations. Latest examples embody discussions on agriculture and water administration. At the moment, it seems as if local weather change within the context of oceans and human well being might quickly be added to the formal discussions.

In fact, the local weather COPs might actually be improved. For example, the variety of formal agenda gadgets may very well be diminished, because the negotiations are actually very complicated. Nevertheless, the UN COPs proceed to serve an vital perform and will, in our opinion, embody a variety of stakeholders.

The subsequent COP is happening in Belém, Brazil in November 2025. What’s on the agenda, and what must occur earlier than then?

The street to COP30 in Brazil lies by way of Bonn, Germany, which is the placement for the annual preparatory assembly every June. UN local weather watchers shall be paying shut consideration to the two-week session in Bonn to see if we’re on monitor to make any breakthroughs in Brazil.

The important thing points the place observers wish to see progress at COP30 embody:

Extra international locations coming to the desk with bold pledges within the type of stronger NDCs;Proof that extra funding is being mobilized to combat local weather change, particularly for the World South;Proof that international locations are retaining their present guarantees underneath the Paris Settlement, or that they’re at the very least taking steps to shut any gaps;Progress on utilizing Nature-Based mostly Options like forest restoration and sustainable land administration; and,Stronger non-public sector engagement, together with avoiding any backsliding from main firms, and particularly from the monetary sector.

We’d additionally wish to see proof at COP30 that the recently-created Loss and Injury Fund is beginning to have an effect, and that the position of oceans in local weather change mitigation and adaptation is being taken extra severely.

Although the state of affairs is unhealthy, is there nonetheless hope?

Sure. Regardless of the latest unhealthy information, we stay optimistic. Historical past exhibits we now have made constructive strides already. We’re satisfied now’s the time to double down on international, collaborative efforts to fight local weather change, and that the UN COPs present vital, common milestones to satisfy, assessment our progress, and strengthen our pledges.

One piece of fine information misplaced amongst all the large, unhealthy headlines pertains to the management at COP30. Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago has been chosen as president of COP30. He performed a big position within the Rio+20 negotiations and has been one among Brazil’s high civil servants for a few years. His experience relating to local weather change and COPs is spectacular. The appointment of such a consummate skilled is a constructive signal of how severely the Brazilian authorities is taking its duties because the COP30 host.

Prof. Felix Dodds and Chris Spence have participated in UN environmental negotiations because the Nineties. They co-edited Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy: Profiles in Braveness (Routledge, 2022). Their subsequent e book, Environmental Lobbying on the United Nations: A Information to Defending Our Planet, is due for launch in June 2025.

© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights ReservedOriginal supply: Inter Press Service

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