Crucial moment in the Conservative leadership race

The dash end to the beginning line is on.

It isn’t the dash end to the end line, however the dash end to the beginning blocks.

The following chief of the Conservative Get together shall be chosen by Conservative Get together members, however they may solely get to select from the ultimate two candidates picked by Conservative MPs on Wednesday afternoon.

Proper now, there’s: Intrigue, plotting, telephone calls, quiet chats, guesswork and claims of underhand techniques.

“We’re pushing in direction of fairly the season finale,” one Conservative MP mentioned to me.

I do know what you is perhaps pondering: pull your self collectively, it is a vote to find out the ultimate two candidates to grow to be the Chief of the Opposition subsequent month.

It isn’t precisely the race to the White Home.

However it’s, nonetheless, a crunch second.

There are three candidates left – James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch – however simply two golden tickets.

You’ll be able to learn extra in regards to the three nonetheless within the operating right here.

The standout improvement in Tuesday’s spherical of voting was James Cleverly propelling himself not simply into the lead, however being miles in entrance.

He managed 39 votes, a quantity even some in his personal camp acknowledge was a bit greater than they had been anticipating.

His efficiency is put all the way down to benefiting from his convention speech final week and the environment friendly hoovering up of various MPs who had beforehand backed the previous cupboard minister Mel Stride.

In a race with 121 votes accessible in complete, if each Conservative MP votes, 41 is ample to ensure a spot within the last two, since each rivals can not outpoll you.

(By the way, I’m informed that outgoing chief Rishi Sunak didn’t vote, which means there was truly an citizens of 120).

Both method, Cleverly may be very almost there, assuming he doesn’t go backwards.

The working assumption of all the campaigns is that he’s going to make the ultimate pair.

And so it’s now a tussle between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick for second place.

Jenrick got here second on this newest spherical of voting, with 31 votes – however managed to lose two votes from the earlier spherical.

Badenoch got here third with 30, only one vote behind, however did achieve two votes.

And there at the moment are 20 votes on the lookout for a brand new dwelling after the broadly anticipated elimination of the previous safety minister Tom Tugendhat.

It might not seem to be a giant quantity, however 20 is one heck of loads in an citizens of 121.

“James is an irrelevance now. It’s all now a battle between us and Kemi’s crew,” mentioned a Group Jenrick insider.

“Tom’s supporters are nearer to our facet than hers,” they added.

“We’ll be forward in the long run.”

It’s a attribute blast of confidence from Jenrick’s camp, who’ve exuded loads of it all through.

However there isn’t a scarcity of psychology in all of this too – and also you may want a splash of outward confidence when you have got simply been knocked off high spot and managed to go backwards.

Supporters of Badenoch acknowledge they might have preferred to have seen her do higher within the newest spherical.

However they suppose there’s a clump of Tugendhat supporters who actually did not like Jenrick’s declare final week that British particular forces are “killing fairly than capturing terrorists” due to the European Conference on Human Rights.

They significantly disliked his use in a marketing campaign video of footage of a comrade of Tugendhat’s from his navy days, who later died.

“Rob is in bother,” one MP predicts – or hopes.

So issues are: Unsure, mighty aggressive and shut.

Tory MPs should determine who they actually don’t wish to be their chief and weigh up how get together members may vote relying on the totally different potential pairings.

The web site ConservativeHome reckons that as issues stand, James Cleverly may beat Robert Jenrick among the many members, however Kemi Badenoch may beat James Cleverly.

“Accordingly, if MPs wish to cease Cleverly from successful, backing Badenoch appears their greatest.

“And in the event that they wish to cease Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick beckons,” because the ConservativeHome places it.

It is sufficient to make your head spin.

Little marvel rumours are rife that every one types of jiggery pokery has been happening – and will nonetheless be happening.

Group Badenoch are enjoying hardball with an argument about her seeming reputation with get together members.

However they achieve this understanding some MPs actually don’t want her as chief.

“What’s going to members say in the event that they should vote for 2 individuals they didn’t need?” says one.

“It’ll be like Liz and Rishi once more, when the members needed Penny vs Kemi,” they add, in reference to Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt within the contest in 2022 and the prospect of a Cleverly-Jenrick run off.

It leaves me pondering how the get together would react if Badenoch is rejected by MPs.

It won’t be fairly.

So, the stakes are excessive – because the Conservative Get together approaches its largest single second but since its calamitous election defeat in July.