But it surely has performed a “straw ballot” of voters at each election since 1980 to precise a choice, and can ship its outcome to Congress all the identical. Usually (Trump’s win in 2016 being one exception) the outcome from Guam has aligned with the eventual nationwide winner. For the reason that territory is 15 hours forward of the U.S. mainland, its straw ballot might be scrutinized as an early indicator of the ultimate end result.
Outcomes are then declared for particular person counties throughout the states as they’re counted within the hours that comply with the shut of polls. Key bellwether precincts and counties to be careful for embrace Door County in Wisconsin and Northampton County in Pennsylvania, each of which have a file of backing the eventual victor.
TV networks and the Related Press play a major position and compete to declare the winners, “calling” states as having voted for one or different candidate after they consider they’ve sufficient outcomes from the electoral precincts. Then when they’re assured, the media networks will ultimately name the general winner, too. With an enormous reputational danger concerned in the event that they get it fallacious — and if the competition is as shut as polls predict — it could possibly be some time earlier than anybody is courageous sufficient to name it.
What are the problems defining the marketing campaign?
Harris has made championing abortion rights the core of her marketing campaign. For the reason that Supreme Courtroom overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, states have been placing ahead their very own measures to revive ladies’s rights to decide on, a coverage that’s nationally in style. She has attacked Trump’s character, describing him as a fascist and arguing that the way forward for democracy is on the road.
For his half, Trump has emphasised the financial system, pledging tax cuts and slamming Biden’s file overseeing a interval of excessive inflation. A crackdown on immigration stays an explosive and central a part of his coverage supply, and he often courts controversy to get his level throughout.
May the polls be fallacious?
After all. Polling is a media obsession and generates huge quantities of protection, dominating the competition and shaping all the debate. However the file of pollsters in latest U.S. presidential elections is a poor one.
