The opinions expressed on this article are these of the creator and don’t symbolize in any manner the editorial place of Euronews.
The 1 March election is ready to be an insider patron-client combat, with varied oligarchic clans competing to have the upper-hand insider hand and in the end a better slice of the pie within the kleptocratic so-called “holy system” that’s the Islamic Republic, Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi write.
Friday marks parliamentary election day within the Islamic Republic of Iran — or so the regime will need the world to imagine.
Cue the staged queues lining up on the poll field able to ship their rehearsed script on “Islamic democracy” to worldwide journalists, who will in flip flaunt their “uncommon and unique” experiences in Iran.
And whereas some mainstream media shops within the West will little doubt fall into the ayatollah’s lure, polling day on 1 March is something however a free and honest vote.
In fact, this can (hopefully) come as no shock to many: there are not any democratic elections in Iran.
Relatively, all candidates are pre-approved by the 84-year-old Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — who guidelines with absolute authority as God’s consultant on Earth — and the result is manufactured to his style.
However even for the requirements of the Islamic Republic, election engineering has been unprecedented this time round.
A patron-client combat is about to unfold
The shortage of penalties for the Islamic Republic has meant the beforehand self-conscious Khamenei now not cares what the world thinks of his regime.
He has pulled off the veil of electoral “legitimacy” and uncovered the bare totalitarianism of his regime.
Within the course of, we’ve witnessed mass disqualifications and even the boycotting of the vote by some parts of the Islamist left (usually wrongly depicted as “reformists”).
In flip, solely the Islamist proper — the social base of Khamenei and his omnipotent paramilitary drive, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — has been permitted to run for workplace.
However “electoral” competitors, if we are able to name it that, isn’t between political events. As an alternative, 1 March can be an insider patron-client combat, with varied oligarchic clans competing to have the upper-hand insider hand and in the end a better slice of the pie within the kleptocratic so-called “holy system” that’s the Islamic Republic.
Competitors is centred on egos, personalities and sources, not political energy per se. In spite of everything, Iran’s legislature, the Majlis, has little or no, if any, authority — and the profitable candidates can be nothing greater than Khamenei’s minions.
So, who’re the patron-client networks battling it out?
The infighting of the previous guard
In easiest phrases, this mafia-like tussle is between the previous cohort of Khamenei absolutists and the supreme chief’s youthful era of zealots.
The figureheads of every clan have produced an inventory of Khamenei pre-approved candidates that may symbolize their community on the “poll”.
Whereas a few of these patrons have entered the race themselves, others have most popular to information from afar — and, in doing so, current themselves as much less opportunistic.
The previous guard all fall beneath three important figures.
The primary is none apart from Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the incumbent Majlis speaker who has earned the title of the IRGC’s “most corrupt commander” — a exceptional achievement given the already rampant corruption within the Guard.
ADVERTISEMENTGhalibaf’s most up-to-date corruption scandal happened this week, with leaked paperwork revealing his son laundering lots of of hundreds of {dollars} in Western banks.
Till now, Ghalibaf has been constantly bailed out by Khamenei’s shut circle every time he has discovered himself in a corruption scandal. However the newest case could show too far — and it has supplied his opponents with ammo to strike.
Subsequent in line is Gholam-Ali Hadad Adel, a senior adviser to the supreme chief.
Hadad-Adel could be very a lot within the inside circle of Khamenei linked by household relations, along with his daughter married to Khamenei’s power-hungry son, Mojtaba — tipped to be the subsequent supreme chief.
Final however actually not least is fiery hardline cleric Morteza Aghatehrani. Aghatehrani was the scholar and protégé of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Taqhi Mesbah-Yazdi, the IRGC’s ideological forefather who as soon as issued a fatwa that inspired acid assaults on ladies with “improper” hijab.
ADVERTISEMENTWhereas this previous cohort can be battling out between themselves, their important combat can be with the youthful era of elites who’re simply as, if no more, radical and excessive. They are often break up into two patron-client teams.
The ‘youngsters’ aren’t alright
The primary falls beneath Mehrdad Bazrpash, incumbent Minister for Roads and City Improvement and the previous IRGC’s Pupil Basij Organisation for Sharif College — an entity sanctioned for gross human rights violations.
Bazrpash’s rise happened beneath Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when at solely 27, the previous hardline president made him head of “Saipa” and “Pars Khodro”, two of the most important automobile manufacturing corporations in Iran — all as a reward for his ideological dedication.
Whereas Bazrpash is not going to be instantly collaborating, he can be fielding candidates beneath his political faction known as “Sharayan”.
And eventually, there’s the brand new loopy on the block: the IRGC-affiliated Ali Akbar Raeifpour.
ADVERTISEMENTRaefipour may be finest described as a radical antisemitic conspiracy preacher. He has teamed up with Saeed Mohammad — a younger and radical IRGC commander who had rising political ambitions that have been minimize brief by the Guard’s previous cohort, not least Ghalibaf.
Regardless of the noise, Raeifpour’s community is unlikely to mount a critical problem to the previous oligarchic elite.
However the truth that this radical preacher, whose extremism was as soon as thought to be being “too irrational” even for segments of the hardline clerical institution is indicative of the “dumbification” of the regime.
The “dumbification” refers to Khamenei’s systematic effort to exchange expertise and information for absolute ideological dedication — or what his circle has termed “purification”.
The regime would not care
This mafia-like competitors between the supreme chief’s older and youthful zealots within the Majlis is similar to that of the approaching elections for the so-called “Meeting of Consultants”, that are additionally happening on 1 March.
ADVERTISEMENTIn principle, this physique is liable for choosing the subsequent supreme chief, however in follow, it’s tightly managed by Khamenei.
Previously 5 years, as a part of his manifesto for the subsequent 40 years, Khamenei has been capable of totally personalise energy within the Islamic Republic and “purify” its ranks in order to make sure the triumph of his cult of character throughout each department of presidency.
In doing so, the 84-year-old ayatollah’s objective is to each assure a clean succession course of — ousting all however absolutists — and to make sure his hardline Islamist ideology outlives him.
Whereas these patron-client oligarchs can be battling it out for a much bigger share of the pie, the overwhelming majority of the Iranian individuals have paid no consideration to the election circus.
In keeping with state-backed figures, that are all the time inflated, as few as 15% of Iranians within the capital Tehran are planning to really go to the polls. Not that the regime cares.
ADVERTISEMENTInevitably, there can be just one winner from this week’s “vote” — particularly, Khamenei himself.
Kasra Aarabi is Director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) analysis at United Towards Nuclear Iran (UANI), specialising in Iranian navy and safety affairs and Shi’a extremism. He’s additionally a non-resident scholar on the Center East Institute in Washington, DC. Saeid Golkar is Senior Advisor at United Towards Nuclear Iran (UANI) and UC Basis Affiliate Professor within the Division of Political Science on the College of Tennessee at Chattanooga.
At Euronews, we imagine all views matter. Contact us at view@euronews.com to ship pitches or submissions and be a part of the dialog.
