Is Spain’s Nato defence spend really as low as Trump claims?

In mid-January, a White Home reporter requested newly elected US President Donald Trump about what to anticipate from Nato international locations that spend the least amount of cash, like Spain, Trump responded that Spain’s contribution “could be very low”, earlier than mistakenly referring to Spain as a BRICS nation.

Throughout his first time period in workplace, the Republican chief typically criticised European Nato international locations for failing to fulfill the agreed defence spending goal of two p.c of their GDP, however extra lately he has demanded that international locations up their spending even additional, to a minimum of 5 p.c of their GDP.

Now that Trump has blindsided European allies with plans for direct negotiations with Russia to finish the warfare in Ukraine, leaders from key European powers gathered in France to provide you with their very own plan, with spending funds one of many dialogue factors. 

READ ALSO: Europe’s safety is at a ‘turning level’, EU chief warns 

Again in July 2024, the Monetary Instances ran an article titled “Why Spain is Nato’s laggard on defence spending” through which it defined why the EU’s fourth-biggest economic system contributes a decrease share of its GDP to the navy than every other Nato ally”.

The FT is just not alone in pointing this out, as in any case it’s true to Spain’s 1.28 p.c of GDP spent on defence is decrease than every other Nato nation.

However does Spain actually should be singled out for not pulling its weight militarily on the worldwide stage?

For reference, Poland is the one European nation that comes wherever near spending 5 p.c of its GDP in defence.

In 2023, simply 9 international locations in the entire world spent 5 p.c of GDP or extra on defence. This included Algeria, Armenia, Israel, Lebanon, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Sudan. Most of those are nonetheless or have been at warfare at time.

Whereas 72 p.c of Nato allies have been predicted to fulfill their two p.c purpose for defence spending final yr, a complete of eight international locations spent lower than this on their navy funds. Certainly one of these was Spain, together with Slovenia, Luxembourg, Belgium, Canada, Italy, Portugal, and Croatia.

READ ALSO: Spain says it is ‘too quickly’ to speak about sending troops to Ukraine 

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In a response to Trump’s January feedback, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez defended Spain’s efforts by saying: “Within the final 10 years, we have now elevated by 70 p.c our complete defence expenditure. If we take these figures in absolute phrases, what we will say is that Spain is the tenth high contributor to Nato”. 

That is true that relating to complete Nato funds, Spain is among the many high 10 contributors, really coming in at quantity seven, contributing 5.8 p.c of the full funds, simply behind Canada.

Actually, a report from the RAND World Research Centre, commissioned by President Trump himself, means that collective defence must be measured not solely by international locations’ spending, however by their true capabilities. This new scale places Spain in a significantly better place than in final place.

This method is what they name the “burden sharing index” and entails understanding what to ask and from which nation, relying on particular wants. 

The burden ratio is calculated by evaluating the share contribution of every ally to the full burden of collective defence with its participation within the complete allied GDP.  

This method gives a extra refined and exact image than the present measuring bar, which is targeted solely on navy spending as a share of GDP.

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This may occasionally appear unnecessarily difficult and complicated, however the truth is it isn’t. RAND researcher Charles King Mallory defined the system by giving an instance of 1 nation that pays 2.1 p.c of its GDP to keep up outdated gear and pay pensions to retired navy officers in contrast with one other that spends 1.9 p.c, however has a well-trained military, fashionable gear and a cutting-edge navy drone trade.  

The primary nation spends greater than the 2 p.c, however the second nation is utilizing its assets extra effectively, so it does not at all times come all the way down to who spends probably the most cash. 

This new scale locations Spain as one of many high 5 international locations that contribute probably the most to Nato.

In keeping with this index, Spain contributes 3.03 p.c to Nato, measured in financial burden.  

READ ALSO: The place are the US’s navy bases in Spain and why are they there?

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Germany for instance contributes a better share of its GDP to defence than Spain, however allocates a excessive share of its funds to administrative bills. Spain’s bills however are centered primarily on fight capabilities  – round 70 p.c, in response to Mallory.

Regardless of all of this, Spain is planning on upping its navy spending much more within the coming years, following all of the stress from the US and different Nato members, however primarily because of the current wakeup name amongst EU nations that they should care for their very own safety. 

In keeping with Spain’s main nationwide day by day El País, whose reporters had entry to the draft invoice on Spain’s elevated navy spend, this yr the nation will contribute 1.32 of its GDP to defence and it will rise yr on yr till it reaches two p.c in 2029.

In 5 years, Spain’s defence funds will go from €17.5 billion to €36.56 billion, which is greater than double.