Utilizing laptop modelling, the met workplace’s three-month forecast is predicting regular seasonal temperatures till the top of August however the mannequin did not predict higher-than-normal temperatures that occurred in March, April and Might.
The forecasts are issued month-to-month trying three months forward with the newest being for June, July and August. The pc modelling is then checked out by way of every earlier month to gauge the way it carried out as compared with real-world knowledge.
As an example, the newest report up till the top of August seems to be again on how the pc mannequin carried out in Might.
When it comes to June, which is seeing extraordinarily excessive temperatures effectively above regular for an prolonged interval, the mannequin predicted that temperatures could be between 1C and 2C above regular over many of the island besides within the east and southeast.
Particularly the mannequin predicts regular temperatures for the three months with a smattering of thunderstorms inland and on the mountains.
“Regular temperatures but additionally drought is the overall function for these three months,” the report says. “That signifies that the imply temperature will probably be round regular and doesn’t exclude days with temperatures effectively above regular.”
Additionally, it stated, any precipitation could be a results of thermal instability, within the type of a thunderstorm, with very native and temporal traits.
There could be a bit extra rain from thunderstorms in August, it added however the expectation was low and could be confined to the northwest coast and the mountains.
The identical report goes on to judge its earlier forecast for Might, saying the mannequin had predicted temperatures could be 1C to 2C hotter than regular “throughout virtually your entire island, besides within the east the place temperatures had been anticipated to be at regular ranges”.
In relation to rain the mannequin predicted this might be 50 per cent of regular for Cyprus when it truth it was 148 per cent of regular for the month.
“In regards to the fashions’ analysis for Might, a basic judgment is that it carried out comparatively effectively concerning the imply month-to-month temperature,” the report stated.
“Nevertheless, concerning the collected precipitation the mannequin didn’t carry out effectively because it underestimated the anticipated collected month-to-month precipitation quantities”.
In a extra detailed analysis of the recorded temperatures, each the imply each day most and minimal temperatures had been in among the climate stations above regular with the common each day minimal temperature being in some instances as much as even 2.9C above regular.
Plenty of extremes had been recorded in the course of the month, it added, some with a deviation of 4C above regular.
So far as the mannequin’s underestimation of the quantity of rain anticipated, the report stated this was “one thing that reveals us the uncertainty of the seasonal forecast mannequin which should all the time be taken under consideration with reservations.”
Equally, the analysis for April prompted the met workplace to say the mannequin had not carried out effectively. It had steered temperatures could be above regular by 1C to 2C with rain a disappointing 50 per cent of the standard for the month.
“A basic judgment is that the mannequin didn’t carry out effectively regarding each the imply each day temperatures and much more in regards to the collected month-to-month precipitation,” the report stated.
The recorded knowledge confirmed that the imply each day most and the imply each day minimal temperatures had been effectively above regular for the month, “which the seasonal forecast mannequin didn’t help very effectively”. In the long run temperatures had been 3.3C to 4.8C above regular, not 1C to 2C.
“Extremes (deviating by 4C or extra from regular) had been recorded in the entire chosen meteorological stations,” it added.
So far as the rain was involved, the report stated that though the prediction was for 50 per cent or much less of the conventional, April’s precipitation got here in at 125 per cent of regular.
The same forecast had been made for March with the identical outcomes. March was general hotter than predicted however the mannequin did precisely predict the rainfall for the month.
