SPECIAL REPORT – Within the final days of 2024, The Cipher Transient turned to our community of specialists – who spend a lot of their time wanting on the dangers and threats dealing with the U.S. and the remainder of world – and requested them a distinct query, extra in keeping with the vacation season: What offers them hope?
Whereas our focus – and theirs – is essentially on struggle, cyberattacks, gray-zone ways, the “Axis of Authoritarians,” and so forth, right here we requested the specialists to replicate on one particular query: What, if something, on the nationwide/world safety panorama offers you cause for hope?
Their solutions coated a spread of points and components of the world – from the spirit of innovation to advances in AI to the Center East (sure, “hope” and “Center East” have been joined in a couple of reply). Some provided a number of paragraphs; others a single sentence; one respondent – the previous Director of Nationwide Intelligence James Clapper – gave a two-word (and never so hopeful) reply.
Taken collectively, they’ve given us a lot to consider, as 2024 attracts to an in depth and the brand new 12 months beckons. We hope they add notes of hope to your vacation season as effectively.
Basic David Petraeus (Ret.)
Basic David Petraeus served greater than 37 years within the U.S. navy with six consecutive instructions, 5 of which have been fight, together with command of the Multi-Nationwide Pressure-Iraq throughout the Surge, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. He’s a associate within the KKR world funding agency and chairs the agency’s world institute.
Gen. Petraeus: The tempo of America’s technological innovativeness, the emergence of vastly spectacular entrepreneurial younger leaders on this nation, and the fundamental qualities and attributes of the U.S. financial ecosystem are all sources of huge hope, regardless of the return of geopolitics with a vengeance and the sheer variety of complexities within the challenges around the globe.
Basic Frank McKenzie (Ret.)
Gen. McKenzie (Ret.) is Govt Director of the College of South Florida’s International and Nationwide Safety Institute. In July 2022, he additionally turned the Govt Director of the Florida Middle for Cybersecurity, also referred to as Cyber Florida. He’s the previous Commander, United States Central Command. Gen. McKenzie was commissioned into the Marine Corps and educated as an infantry officer.
Gen. McKenzie: There may be hope within the Center East, and what has occurred to Iran. The decapitation of Lebanese Hezbollah has eliminated Iran’s strategic hedge in opposition to Israel. The failure of two Iranian missile and drone assaults on Israel laid naked their offensive inadequacies earlier than the world. The Israeli response has highlighted the rising technological hole between Israel and Iran. The sudden demise of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria is a becoming finish to what has confirmed to be a disastrous 12 months for Iran. Each foundational ingredient of Iranian safety coverage has been examined — and located wanting.
John McLaughlin
John McLaughlin is the Distinguished Practitioner in Residence on the Johns Hopkins College of Superior Worldwide Research (SAIS). He served as each Performing Director and Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Company. McLaughlin served as a U.S. Military Officer within the Sixties, with service in Vietnam.
McLaughlin: There may be maybe a ray of hope within the weakening of Iran and the weakening of Hezbollah on account of their conflicts with Israel. Neither is in a really robust place to proceed creating instability within the Center East. The collapse of the Assad authorities in Syria is expounded to this and could also be a supply of hope or despair, relying on what the brand new authorities chooses to do and with whom it chooses to ally.
Nick Fishwick
Nick Fishwick CMG retired after almost thirty years within the British Overseas Service. His postings included Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His duties in London included director of safety and, after getting back from Afghanistan in 2007, he served as director for counter-terrorism. His ultimate function was as director normal for worldwide operations.
Fishwick: 2024 was a brutal 12 months, however I discovered some comfort: first, the strategic downgrading of the capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah must be good for regional safety within the Center East, as a result of they need to imply a decisive setback for Iran’s regional ambitions. Secondly, a 12 months in the past observers fearful about elections in 2024 and whether or not democracy was beneath risk, not least within the U.S. So it was one thing that elections on either side of the pond labored with outcomes that have been accepted and most of the people realizing that in the event that they didn’t just like the outcomes – effectively, that’s democracy. On the identical time, continued meddling in inner politics by malicious actors – take a look at Georgia and Romania – must be countered aggressively.
Extra broadly it appears to me that the perfect playing cards – technological, financial, political – are nonetheless in western arms. We should always have faith in our values – free speech, democracy, pluralism – as a result of different nations endure for his or her absence. We want leaders who’ve an appreciation of how energy works within the fashionable world and who will use it in defence of these values. We want western governments who will use this energy a bit extra assertively, moderately than apologize for it.
Linda Weissgold
Linda Weissgold spent 37-years at CIA. Earlier than the 9/11 terrorist assaults, she was an analyst and chief of analytic applications centered on the Center East. She served as head of the CIA’s Workplace of Terrorism Evaluation and helped to determine Usama Bin Laden’s location and the rise of ISIS. For greater than two years, she served as President George W. Bush’s intelligence briefer.
Weissgold: Whereas there may be more likely to be a rising hole within the years forward between what folks demand and what governments can ship, it’s arduous to not be optimistic about our future when interacting with the American non-public sector and gifted college students. The entrepreneurial spirit is alive and effectively, and if we, as a society, demand the sources, I’ve little doubt that the non-public sector will reply positively and rapidly. I’m already seeing indicators that the expertise is evolving to offer extra transparency for many who need to discover various views, learn unique sources, and guarantee that pictures haven’t been doctored. I even have simply accomplished my first semester educating at Texas A&M’s Bush College of Authorities and Public Service in Washington, DC. I can’t assist however be impressed by a brand new technology occupied with answering the decision for public service to make the world a greater and safer place.
Ralph Goff
Ralph Goff is a 35-year veteran of the CIA the place he was a 6-time Chief of Station with in depth service in Europe, the Center East, and Central and South Asia together with a number of struggle zones. He served as Chief of Operations for Europe and Eurasia. Goff additionally served as Chief of CIA’s Nationwide Assets Division, working extensively with “C Suite” stage US non-public sector executives within the monetary, banking, and safety sectors.
Goff: The standard of younger-generation members in each the U.S. intelligence group and the U.S. Particular Navy Operations Command. They’re tech-savvy – much more so than my technology will ever be. They’re intellectually curious however much more skeptical than was my technology. This skepticism means they have a tendency to query authority – typically perhaps an excessive amount of. Nevertheless, when their older technology leaders earn their belief – and their belief is earned, not merely given – they’re able to following orders and finishing up probably the most difficult duties. I’m very optimistic concerning the subsequent technology of younger leaders each in authorities and the navy in addition to within the non-public sector.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani served because the U.S. Consultant to the Korea Power Growth Group (KEDO), in addition to former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He additionally served as Affiliate Director of Nationwide Intelligence and Mission Supervisor for North Korea, was the Particular Envoy for the Six-Get together Talks with North Korea, and served because the Director of the Nationwide Counter Proliferation Middle, ODNI. He at the moment serves on the Board of Managers at Sandia Nationwide Laboratories.
Amb. DeTrani: That China and the U.S. notice that there are a myriad of worldwide safety points on which we are able to and may collaborate: Pandemics, local weather change, drug trafficking, nuclear proliferation, worldwide organized crime, and worldwide terrorism.
In the meantime, China’s Xi Jinping will notice {that a} navy transfer in opposition to Taiwan just isn’t in China’s curiosity, so long as Taiwan doesn’t declare independence. And whereas Xi Jinping’s plan to make China the preeminent world energy by 2049 will persist in propaganda, in actuality, China will face large financial and home political points that may show tough to handle, making certain that China won’t ever be the preeminent world energy. This, whereas the U.S. economic system continues to develop, and other people in additional nations, together with China, notice that dictatorships/autocracies don’t profit the folks or the nation. International locations will aspire to be democratic, regardless of brutal efforts by dictators and despots to cease them.
Paula Doyle
Paula Doyle served as Assistant Deputy Director for Operations at CIA, the place she oversaw worldwide HUMINT operations and actions that required using air, land, maritime, space-based and cyber applied sciences. She was the Deputy Nationwide Counterintelligence Govt from 2012-2014, the place she oversaw the official US Harm Evaluation ensuing from Personal Manning’s 2010 unauthorized disclosures to Wikileaks and led the IC’s in depth evaluation of Edward Snowden’s unauthorized disclosures and defection to Russia. She led three CIA stations in Europe, the Levant, and Asia.
Doyle: Within the Center East, the brand new administration can set bolder insurance policies. First, rapidly finish the violence in Israel, Lebanon and Gaza, and rush in large deliveries of “made within the USA” meals, water, blankets, and shelter in order that on a regular basis folks affected by the wars can go dwelling — visibly seeing a proactive function by the US. Second, mount a devoted messaging marketing campaign that exposes Tehran’s lengthy monitor file of failure wherever it has gone — e.g., persistent instability, wholesale destruction, human struggling, and limitless wars affecting thousands and thousands of on a regular basis households. U.S. messaging ought to affiliate Iran with a future that guarantees instability, destruction, and struggling. The messages ought to encourage the folks of the area to make higher selections. Third, the U.S. ought to determine elected leaders in Lebanon and Iraq who’re keen responsible Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Kata’ib Hezbollah for inflicting such profound hurt to their folks. As these three aims fall into place, the U.S. ought to decide to serving to trusted Iraqi and Lebanese actors confront inner corruption and terrorism, rebuild wrecked buildings and infrastructures, and restore market-based financial practices.
In 2024, Ukraine conquered part of Russian territory and broken and/or destroyed Russian munitions depots and air airfields in ways in which ought to give Kyiv a stronger place from which to barter the return of some or all of jap Ukraine and Crimea. If either side ought to agree to barter, Moscow and Kyiv might arrive at a ceasefire association and a inexperienced zone demarcation that UN peacekeepers might monitor and implement. Two fashionable ceasefire preparations come to thoughts as potential fashions: Kosovo and Cyprus. Neither ceasefire settlement has been truthful to hundreds of separated households, misplaced properties and companies, and empty chairs at numerous tables; each ceasefires, nonetheless, have resulted in a long time of relative peace and prosperity between opponents.
If sovereignty stays the coin of the civilized society’s realm, Russia will withdraw; nations holding frozen or ceased Russian property ought to be allowed to realign them to the reconstruction of Ukraine. That is extra hope than chance.
If Russia will get to maintain one inch of Ukraine, nonetheless, (because it has finished vis-a-vis South Ossetia since 2008), sovereignty will erode and turn into an appeasement instrument that may function a mannequin for China to turn into extra aggressive with Taiwan and its ambitions within the South China Sea. Appeasement is a coverage born of concern, fatigue, weak point, and doubt. It’s un-American. Sovereignty should prevail. Slava Ukraini.
Nick Thompson
Nick Thompson is a former CIA Paramilitary Case Officer and Naval Particular Warfare Growth Group operator. With over 20 years of expertise within the nationwide safety area, Nick has performed numerous clandestine operations and fight deployments with a major focus within the Center East and Asia. He has frequently navigated and led international intelligence assortment and covert motion initiatives by constructing networks with a various vary of stakeholders. He now works in Washington D.C. at Anduril Industries, a number one protection expertise firm, searching for to carry leading edge functionality to intelligence and protection professionals alike.
Thompson: Continued, swift and enhanced multilateral cooperation. Finland and Sweden, welcome to NATO. The AUKUS (the U.S., UK, and Australia) safety partnership continues to progress and can pave the way in which for bold and floor breaking expertise to succeed in finish customers at velocity. The landmark Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain have grown to incorporate Morocco and Sudan. Hopefully Saudi Arabia is subsequent to affix. South Korea and Japan, two strategically vital nations, are transferring collectively cautiously and collaborating on intelligence and protection once more. Whereas these alliances tackle terrorism, promote financial stability and progress, and plenty of different issues, their most vital function is sending a message of deterrence to our most succesful adversaries.
Ellen McCarthy
Ellen McCarthy is Chairwoman and CEO of the Belief in Media Cooperative. She has over three a long time of nationwide safety service in quite a lot of management roles that span quite a few intelligence organizations, most not too long ago serving because the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Intelligence and Analysis. She’s at the moment a senior fellow on the Belfer Middle at Harvard College.
McCarthy: Heading into 2025 there are lots of causes to be hopeful. The identical developments in AI that problem the knowledge ecosystem are additionally driving breakthroughs in healthcare, science, schooling and protection. Improvements in AI, quantum computing and cyber safety will bolster nationwide safety capabilities, enhancing risk detection and determination making precision.
Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper (Ret.)
Lt. Gen. James Clapper served from 2010 – 2017 because the Director of Nationwide Intelligence. He served in two administrations because the Underneath Secretary of Protection for Intelligence and directed the Nationwide Imagery and Mapping Company (NIMA), remodeling it into the Nationwide Geospatial-Intelligence Company (NGA).
Lt. Gen. Clapper: Not a lot.
Emile Nakhleh
Dr. Emile Nakhleh is a retired Senior Intelligence Service Officer, a founding director of the CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Evaluation Program and the International and the Nationwide Safety Coverage Institute on the College of New Mexico. Since retiring from the federal government, Nakhleh has consulted on nationwide safety points, notably Islamic radicalization, terrorism, and the Arab states of the Center East. He’s a life member of the Council on Overseas Relations.
Nakhleh: On the danger of sounding pollyannish, I might flag a number of hopeful prospects:
Donald Trump’s proclivities, and potential insurance policies, to finish regional conflicts, notably between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and its neighbors; a potential path towards a two-state answer in Israel/Palestine; an surprising rapprochement between Israel and Iran and concomitantly between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors; and a extra steady interval of worldwide commerce regardless of Trump’s risk of tariffs.
Any of the above optimistic eventualities could be undermined by the emergence of a number of surprising and doubtlessly disruptive wild playing cards. These might embody: Coordinated rogue use of AI and cyber warfare by non-state actors, which the present world order is likely to be unable to fight or neutralize; ascendant BRICS and different worldwide groupings that might undercut America’s affect and financial dominance regionally and globally. Trump’s risk to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS member states could be ineffective and positively dangerous to world order and worldwide commerce and banking; Israel and Iran (and their proxies) might reject all makes an attempt at rapprochement and as an alternative careen towards all-out regional struggle.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Transient.
