Final month’s sudden and tumultuous overthrow of Syria’s longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad marked a second of seismic upheaval in a area already straining beneath the load of spiraling wars and geopolitical strife. Years within the making, Assad’s ousting now leaves Syria in a state of fragile uncertainty, as the assorted rebel factions who helped carry Syria up to now vie for management shifting ahead, usually with the backing of worldwide companions eager to capitalize on a regional energy vacuum.
In the course of these intersecting vectors of affect and curiosity lies the Syrian Democratic Forces, an American-backed navy group of Kurdish-led fighters that controls roughly one-third of the nation after serving to the U.S. struggle ISIS within the area. The SDF’s amassed energy has positioned it — and Syria’s ethnic minority Kurdish group at giant — on the middle of a struggle for the nation’s future. The regional powerhouse Turkey is threatening to get rid of the navy group as a part of a broader anti-Kurdish enterprise, and the U.S. is pondering if and methods to greatest help a confirmed ally.
‘Unsure future’
For greater than a decade, the Kurdish SDF was “America’s most dependable companion in Syria,” The New York Instances mentioned, not solely recapturing territory previously held by ISIS however detaining “round 9,000 of its fighters.” Turkey, although, views the group as “allied with the separatist Kurdistan Employees’ Occasion which has fought the Turkish state for many years.” With Turkey maneuvering to “make itself a key participant as its southern neighbor stabilizes,” that nation has more and more threatened direct navy motion towards Syria’s Kurdish forces except they “settle for Ankara’s circumstances for a ‘cold’ transition,” Al Jazeera mentioned.
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Syria’s new post-Assad management, apprehensive in regards to the nation’s “unsure future,” final month “took steps to dissolve the totally different insurgent factions and unite them beneath the brand new Syrian military,” Nationwide Public Radio mentioned. The SDF didn’t take part in that unification course of, claiming that whereas it “wasn’t against becoming a member of the Syrian navy in precept,” any such motion “required negotiations with Damascus.” Crucially, the Syrian Nationwide Military — the group most intently aligned with Turkey, “is interacting with the brand new Syrian management in Damascus to combine right into a unified military,” mentioned Basis for the Protection of Democracies analysis analyst Ahmad Sharawi. The query then is whether or not or not any future unified military “will take part in an offensive towards northeastern Syria and SDF-controlled areas.”
Securing US ‘pursuits and status’
There are 2,000 American troops within the nation, and “most U.S. targets in Syria have been completed.” These targets embody mitigating the menace from ISIS, staunching the usage of Syria as a conduit for Iranian affect in Lebanon and deposing the Assad regime, mentioned Steven Simon and Joshua Landis at Overseas Affairs. “Solely the destiny of Syrian Kurds stays unresolved.”
Whereas the majority of Syria is “awash with armed teams” within the wake of Assad’s ouster, the northeast area beneath SDF management has been an “island of stability amid the chaos” thanks in no small half to the Kurds who’ve “sacrificed tremendously to help the U.S.-led warfare on terror,” mentioned Georgetown College safety research professor David Phillips at The Hill. As “allies and pals with whom we share strategic pursuits and values,” America’s “pursuits and status” demand america help them towards any potential Turkish aggression. A “best-case situation for the Kurds,” mentioned The New York Instances, could be American help that permits “leverage with the brand new authorities in Damascus to pursue a completely autonomous state.” A worst case situation for the Kurds: “Infected battle with Turkish-backed fighters, be compelled to cede management of at the least a few of their oil-rich territory” and “if President-elect Donald J. Trump decides to withdraw U.S. troops,” the SFD may “lose very important assistance on the bottom.”
