With hostile Turkish-backed teams mobilising towards them in Syria’s north, and Damascus dominated by a gaggle pleasant to Ankara, Syria’s primary Kurdish factions are on the again foot as they search to protect political positive aspects carved out throughout 13 years of warfare.
A part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds have to date been among the many few winners of the Syrian battle, controlling almost 1 / 4 of the nation and main a strong armed group that could be a key U.S. ally in countering Islamic State.
However the energy stability has tilted towards them because the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat informed Reuters.
The seismic change in Syria is anticipated to yield deeper Turkish sway simply as a change of U.S. administration is elevating questions over how lengthy Washington will hold backing the nation’s Kurdish-led forces.
For Turkey, the Kurdish factions characterize a nationwide safety risk. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Staff Celebration (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency towards the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and different powers.
The Syrian Kurdish teams “are in deep, deep hassle”, stated Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide, a U.S.-based suppose tank.
“The stability has shifted essentially in Syria to the benefit of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey appears decided to take advantage of this to the fullest.”
The shift has been mirrored in renewed preventing for management of the north, the place Turkey-backed armed teams often known as the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) have made navy advances towards the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fanar al-Kait, a senior official within the Kurdish-led regional administration, informed Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Celebration oppressed Kurds for many years, introduced an opportunity to sew the fragmented nation again collectively.
He stated the administration is prepared for dialogue with Turkey, however the battle within the north confirmed Ankara had “very unhealthy intentions”.
“It will definitely push the area in the direction of … a brand new battle,” he added.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Friday he anticipated international states would withdraw help for Kurdish fighters following Assad’s toppling, as Ankara seeks to isolate the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheaded the SDF alliance.
Responding to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official stated the basis reason for the battle is “not Turkey’s view in the direction of the area; it’s that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organisation”.
“The PKK/YPG parts should lay down their arms and depart Syria,” the official stated.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in a Reuters interview on Thursday, acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria for the primary time, saying that they had helped battle Islamic State and would return residence within the occasion a complete ceasefire was agreed with Turkey. He denied any organisational ties with the PKK.
FEMINISM AND ISLAMISM
In the meantime, in Damascus, the brand new management is displaying heat in the direction of Ankara and indicating it desires to convey all Syria again below central authority – a possible problem to the decentralisation Kurds favour.
Whereas Turkey supplies direct backing to the SNA, it together with different states deems HTS a terrorist group due to its al Qaeda previous.
Regardless of this, Ankara is believed to have vital sway over the group. A senior Western diplomat stated: “The Turks can clearly affect them greater than anybody else”.
HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa informed a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s ouster was “not solely the victory of the Syrian folks, but additionally the Turkish folks”.
The Turkish official stated HTS was not and by no means had been below Ankara’s management, calling it a construction “we have been speaking with on account of circumstances” and including many Western states have been additionally doing so.
Syrian Kurdish teams led by the Democratic Union Celebration (PYD) and the affiliated YPG militia took management of a lot of the north after the rebellion towards Assad started in 2011. They established their very own administration, whereas insisting their intention was autonomy, not independence.
Their politics, emphasising socialism and feminism, differ starkly from HTS’ Islamism.
Their space grew as U.S.-led forces partnered with the SDF within the marketing campaign towards Islamic State, capturing Arab-majority areas.
The Turkey-backed SNA teams stepped up their marketing campaign towards the SDF as Assad was being toppled, seizing town of Manbij on Dec. 9
Washington brokered a ceasefire, however the SDF has stated Turkey and its allies haven’t abided by it, and a Turkish defence ministry official stated there was no such deal.
U.S. help for the SDF has been some extent of pressure with its NATO ally, Turkey. Washington views the SDF as a key associate in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will attempt to use this era to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF remains to be guarding tens of 1000’s of detainees linked to the militant group.
Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler stated final weekend that Turkey noticed no signal of an Islamic State resurgence in Syria. On Friday, Turkey’s international minister, Hakan Fidan, informed his German counterpart throughout talks in Ankara that options wanted to be discovered for the administration of camps and prisons the place the detainees are being held.
Individually, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Close to Jap Affairs Barbara Leaf stated on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to search out “a managed transition by way of SDF’s position in that a part of the nation.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has stated that U.S. troops will keep on in Syria, however President-elect Donald Trump may take away them when he takes workplace on Jan. 20.
LETTER TO TRUMP
Throughout his first administration, Trump tried to drag out of Syria however confronted stress at residence and from U.S. allies.
In a Dec. 17 letter to Trump, reviewed by Reuters, high Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed stated Turkey was making ready to invade the northeast earlier than he takes workplace.
Turkey’s plan “threatens to undo years of progress in securing stability and preventing terrorism”, she wrote. “We consider you could have the ability to forestall this disaster.”
Requested for remark, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes stated: “We proceed to observe the state of affairs in Syria. President Trump is dedicated to diminishing threats to peace and stability within the Center East and to defending People right here at residence.”
Trump stated on Dec. 16 that Turkey will “maintain the important thing” to what occurs in Syria however has not introduced his plans for U.S. forces stationed there.
“The Kurds are in an unenviable place,” stated Joshua Landis, a Syria knowledgeable on the College of Oklahoma. “As soon as Damascus consolidates its energy, it would transfer on the area. The U.S. can’t stay there without end.”
HTS chief Sharaa informed British broadcaster the BBC that Kurds have been “a part of our folks” and “there must be no division of Syria”, including arms must be totally within the state’s palms.
Sharaa acknowledged one in every of Turkey’s primary issues – the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria – and stated: “We don’t settle for that Syrian lands threaten and destabilize Turkey or different locations.”
He pledged to work by dialogue and negotiations to search out “a peaceable components to unravel the issue,” saying he believed preliminary contacts had been established “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the SDF organisation”.
Kait, the Kurdish official, stated his administration needed “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as crimson traces. The SDF could be “a nucleus of the approaching Syrian military,” he added.
SDF commander Abdi, in his Reuters interview, confirmed that contact had been established with HTS to keep away from clashes between their forces however stated Ankara would attempt to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration.
Nonetheless, he stated there was sturdy help from worldwide events, together with the U.S.-led coalition, for the SDF becoming a member of “the brand new political section” in Damascus, calling it “a fantastic alternative”.
“We’re making ready, after a complete ceasefire between us and between Turkey and the affiliated factions, to hitch this section,” he stated.
