Turkey likely to play major role in shaping post-Assad Syria : NPR

ISTANBUL — Because the world watches Syria grapple with the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime and the formation of a brand new authorities, one nation has emerged as having nice affect over the brand new Syria: its neighbor to the north, Turkey.

In a press convention on Monday, President-elect Donald Trump stated he believed that Turkey was behind Assad’s downfall.

“Turkey did an unfriendly takeover with out loads of lives being misplaced,” Trump stated. “I feel Turkey goes to carry the important thing to Syria.”

The Turkish authorities has not publicly commented on Trump’s remarks.

What was Turkey’s function within the Syrian civil struggle?

Earlier than Syria’s civil struggle erupted virtually 14 years in the past, Turkey loved steady relations with the nation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Assad obtained alongside effectively, to the extent that their households even vacationed collectively as soon as. However after Assad’s brutal crackdown on peaceable protesters in 2011, Erdogan lower ties and put his intelligence and army assets behind insurgent teams preventing Assad.

“Turkey’s purpose was, after all, in any respect prices unseating Bashar al-Assad,” stated political analyst Soli Ozel, who teaches at Kadir Has College in Istanbul.

Turkey, a NATO member that shares a protracted southern border with Syria, opened its doorways to the biggest variety of Syrian refugees of any nation, in line with United Nations knowledge — peaking at greater than 3.7 million in 2021 — a lot of whom have been linked with opposition teams and underneath risk from the Assad regime.

However by 2018, as Assad gave the impression to be successful the civil struggle — with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah — Turkey’s place got here with a value. It confronted home and financial difficulties, with the general public blaming the Syrian refugees. And the nation additionally confronted safety threats alongside its border with Syria.

Earlier than the insurgent teams moved on Assad’s military in late November, Turkey’s targets had shifted to making sure that insurgent enclaves like Idlib in Syria’s north have been steady, so as to stop extra refugee inflow into Turkey, in line with Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan.

“In Idlib, round 4 million Syrians lived underneath the management of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” he stated in an interview Sunday with Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath TV, referring to the Islamist group, also called HTS, that led fighters who toppled Assad and is now main Syria. “There was all the time a threat of those folks coming to Turkey throughout instances of disaster.”

He added, “To stop these crises and preserve stability, we now have remained in coordination with these teams, and thru this course of, we had the chance to get to know them.”

Within the months earlier than the shock insurgent takeover of Assad-controlled areas, the Turkish authorities was underneath heavy home strain to resolve the refugee disaster. Opposition politicians noticed the federal government’s help of insurgent teams as a strategic mistake. Erdogan’s administration had even begun to discover the potential for mending ties with Assad, nevertheless it by no means got here to fruition.

Now, after greater than a decade, there is a sense of vindication in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, that it wasn’t all for nothing.

“Lots of people replicate on this within the sense that Turkey is a winner. It has proximity, it has affect. It has troops greater than the rest,” Ozel stated.

What sort of affect will Turkey have on the brand new Syrian management?

Turkey is already visibly lively in Syria. The Turkish Embassy in Damascus is up and operating. And Turkey’s intelligence chief paid a go to to Damascus final week and met with the chief of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa — previously identified by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani — who’s now the de facto chief of the brand new Syrian administration.

In his interview with Al Hadath TV, Fidan stated that Turkey has been sending messages from Western and regional international locations to the brand new Syrian management in an effort to average HTS. The group fashioned as an affiliate of al-Qaida in 2011. Turkey, the US and the United Nations Safety Council have designated HTS as a terrorist group. However since defeating Assad, the group has portrayed itself as extra average and inclusive of different religions and minorities, with encouragement from the Turkish authorities.

“There have been sure rules that almost all events appeared to agree on. These embrace stopping terrorist organizations from benefiting from Damascus within the new period, making certain good remedy of minorities, particularly Christians, Kurds, Alevis and Turkmen, and establishing an inclusive authorities,” Fidan stated.

In an interview with Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak on Wednesday, HTS chief Sharaa stated there could be “strategic relations” between the 2 international locations.

“Of the numerous international locations Syrians sought refuge in, Turkey welcomed them and revered them probably the most. I hope that Syria will not overlook this kindness,” Sharaa stated.

He added that Syria’s insurgent takeover was a win for Turkey: “This victory will not be solely the victory of the Syrian folks but in addition of the Turkish folks.”

Finally, analysts say, Turkey would not management HTS and plenty of questions stay about what the brand new Syrian administration will form as much as be. These are potential challenges for the Turkish authorities, in line with Ozel.

“If HTS good points extra energy, how rather more amenable is it going to be to Turkey’s solutions, suggestions? That is still to be seen,” Ozel stated.

However specialists say the brand new Syrian leaders must depend on Turkey to assist them set up public order, type establishments and supply assets, like water and electrical energy. With a lot of Syria destroyed, Turkish development corporations are more likely to search a lead function in reconstruction.

“We belief that Turkey will switch its expertise in financial growth to Syria,” Sharaa instructed Yeni Safak newspaper.

Then there’s the matter of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. Lots of them now converse Turkish fluently and have enterprise relations and different ties with Turkey, which may present extra technique of affect for the Turkish authorities, ought to they return to Syria.

What are Turkey’s targets in Syria now?

Laying out their targets in current media interviews, senior Turkish officers have stated their first precedence is to dismantle the Kurdish fighter group in Syria generally known as the YPG.

However the YPG is a big a part of a Kurdish coalition — the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — that the US supplied with weapons to assist struggle towards the Islamic State group.

Turkey says the YPG is the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Employees’ Occasion (PKK), a separatist group that has fought Turkey for over 4 many years and is listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.

Turkish officers stated they’re asking the U.S. to reassess its place with the YPG.

Thus far, U.S. officers haven’t signaled any modifications to their coverage of supporting the Kurdish coalition.

On Tuesday, State Division spokesperson Matthew Miller stated a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdish coalition forces in Manbij has been prolonged till the tip of the week.

Miller stated the U.S. understands Turkey has “official considerations” about a few of the fighters in Syria and is speaking to Turkish authorities “to discover a path ahead.”

Turkish officers stated their different goal is the formation of a steady and united Syria.

“We wish each a civil and democratic state,” Overseas Minister Fidan stated.

Turkey’s protection minister additionally supplied army help and coaching to the brand new leaders of Syria.

“I feel Turkey can be there to assist with the brand new administration that can be fashioned there,” stated Mustafa Kibaroglu, director of graduate research in political science and worldwide relations at MEF College in Istanbul. “As a result of what occurs there has a direct bearing on Turkish prosperity, safety, the whole lot, so we can not simply flip a blind eye.”

Will Turkey play an even bigger function within the area as effectively?

Analysts count on Turkey to be influential within the Center East, however to not search hegemony in the best way that Iran has with its proxies Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Turkish Overseas Minister Fidan appeared to ship a message to Center Jap leaders that outlined Turkey’s imaginative and prescient for the area.

“By standing shoulder to shoulder, we should set up our personal pursuits and order within the area,” Fidan stated within the TV interview on Sunday.

“We don’t want Iranian domination within the area, nor do we wish Turkish or Arab domination,” he added.

Kibaroglu, of MEF College’s graduate college, agrees. “We now have seen how issues might flip up within the damaging sense for many who attempt to dominate the area,” he stated. “We now have seen the function Iran performed particularly since Nineteen Nineties and now they needed to withdraw their troops and paramilitaries and proxies to a fantastic extent.”

Analysts say a few of the Turkish public is cautious of deeper involvement within the Center East.

“My hunch is that the Turkish safety elites have realized their classes from the precedent days when that [domination] was very a lot on their agenda,” Ozel stated. “Turkey will be very influential as an actor, however inside limits. And if it manages the state of affairs effectively, it would profit closely.”