Turkish authorities officers are cautious of their public statements relating to the outcomes of the US presidential election, in order to not depart room for misinterpretation on the a part of Washington and to keep away from potential post-election shadows of their relations with the brand new president, whoever he could also be. .
Nonetheless, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, when requested throughout his current go to to New York for the UN Normal Meeting final September, mentioned: “I hope that the subsequent president won’t make the outgoing one look higher. As a result of, the F-35 problem with the USA was not solely skilled throughout the interval of Mr. Donald Trump, however it continued after that. All of them disenchanted us. Each Republicans and Democrats.”
In Ankara, they see that Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have completely different approaches to President Erdogan. Sinan Ulgen, director of the Heart for Financial and International Coverage Research (EDAM), reminds VOA that Tayyip Erdogan's relationship with Donald Trump was sturdy throughout the latter's presidency. The Turkish professor additionally predicts that “if Kamala Harris wins the election, relations between Harris and Erdogan are prone to be a lot shallower,” as had been the relations between President Biden and Erdogan.
A change within the higher echelons of American diplomacy, within the occasion of a Trump victory, would probably give the Turkish president a possibility to try to overturn his nation's picture as a disreputable ally in Washington. This, after all, to the extent potential, because the distinction of opinion between the 2 sides is just not solely a matter of personalities, however primarily of conflicting political targets – the US is seen as an impediment to the belief of Turkish ambitions within the area, at the very least these days.
Nonetheless, the idea is widespread amongst Turkish political analysts that the Turkish president would really feel extra snug with Donald Trump within the White Home, even though the present “problematic alliance” relationship between the US and Turkey is the end result of a collection of episodes that started on Trump presidency. Within the November 2016 election, the Turkish president supported Trump, then most likely regretted it.
Nonetheless, it doesn’t go unnoticed that Erdogan beforehand met the US president 9 occasions throughout Donald Trump's tenure, together with one in Washington. Biden and Erdogan, alternatively, met solely as soon as and had a number of temporary casual conferences on the sidelines of worldwide summits.
Kamala Harris hasn't given a lot to put in writing about with regards to her overseas coverage. Throughout her vice-presidency she participated in solely two main worldwide conferences. The primary was as the top of the American delegation to the Munich Safety Convention in 2022. The second was the peace summit for Ukraine in Switzerland in June 2024. Nonetheless, many level to the names that surrounded her in these two conferences, the who’ve in depth expertise in overseas coverage: Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on the Munich Convention and Nationwide Safety Adviser Jake Sullivan in Switzerland.
Harris is taken into account extra “predictable” than Donald Trump, this includes fewer dangers, making her coverage maybe extra dependable for Ankara.
Trump's relations with Tayyip Erdogan, alternatively, have had many and excessive fluctuations prior to now. In 2012, lengthy earlier than he moved to the White Home, Trump noticed funding alternatives in Erdogan's Turkey and thus determined to construct the dual towers “Trump Towers” in probably the most costly areas of Istanbul with the assistance of businessmen pleasant to the Turkish president on that point. However even later, when their relationship grew to become problematic, they maintained a channel of communication via their sons-in-law, Jared Kushner and Berat Albayrak.
The tried navy coup in 2016 didn’t depart US-Turkish relations unaffected, as Erdogan noticed an American finger behind the try to bloody overthrow the Turkish authorities. The asylum granted by the US to preacher Fethullah Gulen, the mastermind behind the coup in line with Ankara, strengthened this view. Gulen's demise, on October 20, now removes a serious burden from US-Turkish relations, simply earlier than the altering of the guard within the presidency of america.
Within the wake of the navy motion, the case of the American pastor Andrew Brunson, who was dealing with a life sentence for his involvement, in line with the Turkish authorities, within the coup, got here to weigh much more on bilateral relations. In response to press studies on the time, Trump refused to present Gülen in alternate for Brunson and finally secured his launch by threatening to destroy the Turkish financial system.
Throughout Trump's presidency, Turkey was additionally expelled from the F-35 fighter program, in software of the Countering America's Adversaries By Sanctions Act (CAATSA), after Turkey's procurement of the anti-aircraft missile of the S-400 system, via which Moscow may acquire entry to the plane's secrets and techniques and nullify its comparative benefits on the battlefield. Turkey will now have to barter with the subsequent US president if there’s a risk of its return to this system and on what phrases or if and the way it will obtain the return of the 1.45 billion. {dollars} it paid for its participation within the three way partnership.
Within the meantime, the case of the Turkish financial institution Halkbank arose, whose administration was referred to the American Court docket of Justice on the cost of violating the American sanctions in opposition to Iran.
Nonetheless, Kurdish is rising as a giant “thorn” in American-Turkish relations. The civil battle in Syria initially and the battle in Gaza and Lebanon over the past yr have redefined the way in which Washington approaches the issue, which with its navy presence in Syria helps the Kurds east of the Euphrates. Turkey sees as a menace to its personal territorial integrity the prospect of making a Kurdish entity – extra probably a state – in northern Syria, proper subsequent to its borders. For Turkey, the Kurds of Syria are the “identical and the identical” because the PKK, which has been engaged in armed assaults in opposition to it for 40 years.
Turkish journalist Fehim Taştekin describes how Ankara views its relations with Washington via a Kurdish lens, an method that diplomats in Western capitals typically fail to understand is dominant within the neighboring nation's decision-making facilities and is one which right now largely pushes Turkey to redefine its relations with america. In response to Tastekin: “The US is utilizing all its capabilities to vary the steadiness of energy within the Center East with the assistance of Israel, its “executor” within the area. We see that on this course of, some take a place by adopting the view {that a} new world might be created and the Kurds will take their place in it. Those that make calculations round Rojava (together with Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria) place themselves as potential allies of the US, Israel and the Gulf states. On this context, the collapse of the axis of resistance stretching from Gaza to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran is seen as a possibility. In fact, this has an affect on Ankara and assessments are made accordingly.”
In conclusion, for Ankara, there are three major open chapters in the meanwhile in US-Turkish relations and, if there are not any reversals, these might be referred to as upon to deal with after his inauguration in January the subsequent president of america:
a) US help for the Syrian Kurds. In his earlier time period, Trump had promised the withdrawal of American troops, a promise he in the end didn’t preserve. He had even despatched a historic letter through which, breaking all the trimmings of diplomatic language, he requested Erdogan to succeed in an settlement with the navy chief of the Kurdish-controlled Syrian Democratic Forces. The present American administration, alternatively, has given no indication of an imminent navy withdrawal from Syria. In any case, a weakening of the American navy presence within the area is taken into account unlikely underneath the given situations of battle.
b) Turkey's buy of F-16 plane. The implementation of this system has been launched and either side are negotiating on a technical degree. It isn’t anticipated that there might be any objections within the occasion of an electoral victory for Harris – in spite of everything, the deal was closed throughout the Biden presidency. The Trump facet has not proven its intentions.
c) The battle in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump has brazenly supported Israel, and Erdogan's help for Hamas may have repercussions. Harris, alternatively, is prone to proceed the present US coverage within the Center East or to distance herself from some selections of the Israeli authorities, which is able to most likely get rid of some potential factors of friction in US-Turkish relations.
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