BRUSSELS — Now comes the tough half.
EU leaders on Thursday endorsed a second five-year time period for Ursula von der Leyen as European Fee president.
Now the German center-right politician faces a knife-edge vote within the European Parliament, which even her personal celebration allies admit will probably be extra of a problem to tug off.
When the Parliament of 720 MEPs meets in mid-July she might want to persuade simply over half, a minimum of 361, to vote for her in a secret poll. The present coalition of socialists, liberals and her personal center-right grouping maintain somewhat beneath 400 of these seats. Some analysts undertaking a defection price of round 10 %, which might put her proper across the 361 mark. The vote may come as early as July 18.
In 2019, when von der Leyen was a crisis-hit German protection minister who was plucked to tackle the EU’s strongest job, she solely made it throughout the road by 9 votes.
This time she’s bought a confirmed observe document, however most of the events that backed her then — such because the nationalist Polish Legislation & Justice celebration — is not going to achieve this now.
Numbers recreation
To achieve success this time she must make a near-impossible political calculation: Does she keep on with the three events within the heart, flip left to the Greens, or widen the tent by together with elements of the hard-right group that features Giorgia Meloni? The Italian prime minister abstained from voting for von der Leyen on Thursday evening.
There are dangers connected to all three methods.
Hedging her bets and holding her coalition slender is unlikely to offer the numbers von der Leyen wants. Collectively her center-right European Individuals’s Occasion, the Socialists and Democrats and the liberal Renew group have just below 400 seats. That’s an uncomfortably slender majority, particularly provided that chunks of that coalition — from the French Republicans to the Irish Fianna Fáil — have already mentioned they received’t vote for her.
Enlisting the Greens can be a dangerous wager. After 5 years wherein they largely opposed von der Leyen, the environmentalists are actually clamoring to be a part of the bulk supporting her, which might give them an opportunity to affect laws though they’ve misplaced seats since 2019. However whereas embracing the Greens would please the Socialists and elements of Renew, it might nearly definitely alienate elements of von der Leyen’s personal center-right energy base, particularly the highly effective German Christian Democrats.
The riskiest technique of all, although, is to woo Meloni and maybe different elements of the European Conservatives and Reformists grouping, which is now in third place within the Parliament having pipped Renew to that influential spot.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz intentionally averted involving Meloni within the negotiations between the six high political negotiators, EU officers careworn.
That matches with the way it’s been shaking out within the Parliament, the place the Socialists and Renew have set a pink line: In the event that they a lot as sniff von der Leyen doing a take care of Meloni, they’ll pull the plug on her.
Von der Leyen, who has been assembly one-on-one with the socialist and liberal leaders within the legislature, will come to the Parliament’s highest political physique July 2 for closed-door talks with the heads of the teams.
The following few weeks will probably be dominated by negotiations she’s going to maintain with senior MEPs on her so-called political pointers, which can type the idea of her coverage agenda.
If she comes up quick within the secret poll, even by a single vote, the European Council has a month to deliberate and provide you with a candidate, an final result that might be unprecedented and will spark a political disaster.
If she is appointed to a different time period, she will be able to then speak to nationwide governments about their particular person nominees for commissioner, though nations have already began jostling informally for the names and portfolios they need.
It’s anticipated that von der Leyen will once more ask for 2 choices from every authorities, a feminine and a male candidate; how she distributes the portfolios is as much as her. Final time round she brought on consternation on the left of the political spectrum by making a portfolio for the European lifestyle, a job held by Greek Commissioner Margaritis Schinas. And can there nonetheless be government vice presidents of the Fee, or will they be discarded in favor of a flatter construction?
Every commissioner will face a tricky grilling within the Parliament, after which the complete School of Commissioners — which incorporates Kaja Kallas, who was picked as excessive consultant for overseas affairs — must be voted by by a majority of MEPs in a vote that won’t be secret.
As for António Costa, who will change into president of the European Council till a minimum of June 2027, he can breathe a bit extra simply, as he doesn’t want the backing of the Parliament.
Barbara Moens contributed reporting.
