If von der Leyen abandons hope of receiving help from the ECR, she would wish backing not simply from Renew and S&D, but in addition the Greens, to make up for the shortfall. With the Greens within the combine, von der Leyen’s projected base of help can be 432 votes — greater than sufficient to move the brink even considering a substantial attrition price.
However nothing is much less predictable than what sort of help she will count on from the Greens, who didn’t help von der Leyen in any systemic manner again in 2019. Talking to POLITICO, German Greens lawmaker Daniel Freund identified the Greens had labored carefully with von der Leyen all through her time period in energy and will but supply help for her reelection, although such help would are available change for a “record of calls for.”
“The query is: What can we get if we make a deal to work along with her?” he requested. “As Greens we’ve a protracted record of calls for of issues we’d like to alter.”
“If we proceed the Inexperienced Deal, the rule of regulation, if that’s her agenda, my prediction is that that is one thing very a lot the Greens can carry,” he added.
But these very commitments for the Greens may show poisonous for von der Leyen’s help amongst conservatives, who’ve particularly rebelled towards key features of Inexperienced Deal within the final yr of her mandate, specifically the phaseout of the combustion engine and a nature restoration regulation.
Including to the uncertainty, von der Leyen is more likely to should make any such offers in a mad-dash of negotiation following the late-June conferences of the European Council. A number of political teams are pushing to carry the affirmation for the subsequent Fee president in July, over the past plenary session earlier than the summer time recess — which leaves her a particularly slender window during which to assemble a probably extremely advanced coalition deal between Renew, S&D, the EPP and the Greens.
Whereas different factions have pressed for the deal to be executed in July, Freund indicated openness to extending the timeframe till September — one thing EPP occasion president Manfred Weber has additionally been pushing for. Extra time may purchase von der Leyen some respiratory room to keep away from a humiliation in Parliament.
“Von der Leyen is just not a risk-taker,” Freund added. “She gained’t wish to be taking the stroll of disgrace out of Parliament.”
