That is half considered one of a 3-part collection by Cipher Transient Knowledgeable and former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia Dave Pitts, who additionally serves as a member of The Cipher Transient’s new Grey Zone Group.
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Ten thousand North Korean troopers arrive in Russia to aim to drive the Ukrainians from Russian soil, though North Korea isn’t at conflict with Ukraine.
China conducts persistent and aggressive Coast Guard incursions into Taiwan’s territorial waters to aim to increase and normalize management over the Taiwan Strait, whereas additionally making an attempt to intimidate the Philippines to surrender its presence within the Second Thomas Shoal.
Russia, China, and Iran use cyber and disinformation operations to aim to intervene in U.S. elections, a transparent violation of U.S. sovereignty and political independence.
Russia is conducting sabotage operations throughout Europe concentrating on crucial infrastructure to destabilize NATO allies and disrupt their help for Ukraine.
Pyongyang carried out 97 cyberattacks between 2017 and 2024 with whole harm of round $3.6 billion.
Welcome to the Grey Zone.
The results of the navy escalation of nice energy competitors might be extreme, and nice powers will go to nice lengths to keep away from direct battle, given the potential for devastating losses. The fact is that this shadowy grey zone has turn into an area of accelerating exercise by U.S. adversaries.
What’s the Grey Zone?
The grey zone is the geopolitical area between peace and conflict the place nations conduct actions to advance their nationwide pursuits and weaken their adversaries with out triggering a navy response. Grey zone actions can also set the circumstances for a future conflict however stay under a threshold that may provoke a right away navy response.
Because the U.S. and its allies search to take care of the world order that has been in place since WWII, Russia and China, typically working collectively (and supported by nefarious actors equivalent to Iran and North Korea) have sought to decrease the affect and standing of the U.S. in favor of their very own ascent and their authoritarian views.
The grey zone isn’t only one side of nice energy competitors—it’s rapidly changing into the dominant area the place that competitors performs out. Grey zone exercise is rising as a result of nice energy competitors is intensifying.
The Grey Zone Provides Distinctive Alternatives
International locations typically want deniability to ensure that grey zone actions to achieve success, even when solely a fig-leaf of deniability in some circumstances. Grey zone actions can span the spectrum of attribution from attributable (overt) to unattributable (covert), or misattributable (false flag).
Advances in know-how, notably in AI, and evolving warfare ways like those we’re observing in actual time in Ukraine, (advances in drone know-how, for instance) are offering new capabilities to nations which have the flexibility to ‘stage the enjoying area’ in some methods.
AI can be bolstering each the attain and impression of cognitive warfare ways, offering new strategies of persuasion, coercion, and manipulation. And since nations wish to keep away from a expensive conflict, there’s a excessive threshold, in addition to basic uncertainty, on how to reply to grey zone actions.
Utilizing these benefits, smaller nations, like Iran and North Korea, can at the moment try and make strategic positive aspects towards the U.S. and the West, both alone or in alliance with Russia or China, that may be unachievable in a standard conflict. The grey zone supplies choices to nations that in any other case could have none.
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There are a number of further concerns for really understanding grey zone operations.
First, figuring out what’s grey zone exercise versus regular statecraft might be troublesome and complicated given the often-tense relations between nations. A few of what we contemplate as operations within the grey zone could merely be harsh diplomacy. There’s room for debate there, however we should always keep away from the urge to label each aggressive motion our adversaries take as being ‘within the grey zone’.
There may be additionally some thought that adversary actions should be covert or ambiguous to be thought of grey zone actions. That in all probability aligned nicely throughout the Chilly Struggle, however possibly much less so at the moment.
Some grey zone actions require various ranges of ambiguity or covertness, however not all. Some grey zone exercise is supposed to have an viewers, equivalent to China’s aggressive grey zone actions within the South China Sea.
What frequent methods or ways do our adversaries make use of?
There are a number of ways utilized by our adversaries that make deterrence and successfully responding to grey zone actions tougher.
The primary, “salami ways”, speaks to the usage of small, incremental encroachments or actions that don’t benefit a response, however which might be typically adopted by comparable small encroachments or actions that in sum, change the established order over time. It’s onerous for nations to understand how to reply to this method.
The second, “fait accompli” refers to bolder actions which might be taken rapidly with the calculation {that a} navy response can be too escalatory or dangerous.
Russia seemingly calculated that its plan in 2022 to rapidly decapitate Ukrainian management and take the nation in a matter of days—together with some saber rattling and threats—would have made the takeover of Ukraine a fait accompli that was too dangerous for U.S. and NATO intervention.
Not like in 2014 in Crimea, that technique by Moscow failed in 2022.
One key attribute of grey zone actions is that the concern of the results of twenty first century battle, and notably battle that may attract nations with highly effective militaries, restrains responses to grey zone exercise.
Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea watch U.S. responses carefully, and an absence of response or inconsistent responses, encourages further grey zone motion.
Are we already in a ‘Grey Struggle’ with China and Russia?
Given the rising depth and systematic use of grey zone actions by U.S. adversaries, it’s value contemplating whether or not we at the moment are in a “Grey Struggle” with China and Russia. And is that Grey Struggle being supported by assist from Iran and North Korea?
Contemplate {that a} Grey Struggle would happen fully within the grey zone and can be nicely past the periodic use of grey zone actions by our adversaries to steadily erode U.S energy and affect.
A grey conflict may very well be outlined because the systematic and coordinated use of grey zone actions by our adversaries to realize the identical strategic outcomes as a standard conflict, with out the dangers of direct battle.
The query now could be whether or not China believes that it may well strategically defeat the U.S. – utilizing Russia as a main surrogate – in order that it may well take Taiwan and set up itself because the dominant world superpower with out direct superpower battle.
As an alternative of China utilizing the grey zone to steadily weaken the U.S. and to assist set the circumstances for a future conflict, the brand new actuality is that the grey zone could now be the place the place the subsequent conflict is already being fought.
That is half considered one of a 3-part collection by Cipher Transient Knowledgeable and former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia Dave Pitts, who additionally serves as a member of The Cipher Transient’s new Grey Zone Group.
Learn the subsequent installment of Pitts’ Grey Zone collection subsequent Wednesday solely in The Cipher Transient. And be a part of Pitts and different Cipher Transient Consultants in a collection of reside conversations occurring in 2025 led by former Undersecretary of Protection for Intelligence Dr. Michael Vickers.
Subscriber+ Members, verify your electronic mail for an unique invitation to register for the primary session on Wednesday, January 22 at 1:30p ET. Not a member? We might help with that.Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Transient as a result of Nationwide Safety is Everybody’s Enterprise.
