What do Russians talk about on social media? Vladimir Putin dominates, while political friends and foes trail in the far distance

The sudden demise of Russian opposition figurehead Alexei Navalny in a jail camp in Russia’s Arctic circle on February 16 marked a big second in Russian public discourse. Navalny’s demise led to a considerable improve in on-line dialogue about somebody apart from Vladimir Putin.

There was a 14-fold rise in mentions of Navalny on social media as he quickly outdid Vladimir Putin – one thing very uncommon and a sign of the general public shock and concern his demise had brought on.

I needed to search out out to what extent Putin’s presence on Russian social media in comparison with his dominance in broadcast media. I used an internet site known as BrandAnalytics to gather day by day knowledge on the mentions of distinguished public figures in Russia from February 15 to 27.

Because the Kremlin banned Meta from working in Russia on the finish of 2022, the social media panorama has been dominated by UAE-based platform Telegram in addition to native Russian platforms together with VKontakte and Odnoklassniki. Telegram’s surge as the first digital platform follows the migration of customers from platforms equivalent to Instagram, Fb, and Twitter which are restricted in Russia.

The graph under – which is generated from that knowledge – clearly illustrates the overwhelming dominance of Vladimir Putin within the social media panorama. This dominance is maintained by way of a mixture of state-controlled media, quite a few authorities officers who ceaselessly submit content material that includes him, and the help of bots designed to amplify mentions of his persona. This ensures his pervasive presence in Russian public discourse, reflecting his intensive affect over the media panorama.

Each day mentions of the highest 15 folks on Russian social media:“

But when there could possibly be mentioned to be a challenger for consideration on Russian social media platforms it might be Alexey Navalny. For those who have a look at the desk under, which examines social media mentions in April 2021 – when Navalny returned to Russia after recuperating from Novichok poisoning and was arrested on the airport, tried and imprisoned – you may see that there was a excessive stage of curiosity.

That curiosity was sustained for a number of months as folks adopted the story of his arrest and trial. The president nonetheless dominated social media – however you’d count on that. However, unusually, Putin scored lower than double the variety of mentions that Navalny achieved. Given the elements that artificially inflate Putin’s numbers (authorities officers, bots, and so forth) it exhibits that Navalny remained a robust presence in folks’s minds.

High 5 folks talked about on Russian social media, April 2021 and February 2024:

For those who dig deeper you may establish 4 main teams of personalities that recur in Russia’s prime 50. To make life simpler, I’ve on the highest 15 folks being talked about on social media. It instantly turns into clear that the highest folks being talked about on Russian social media platforms are world leaders – dominated by Putin, however different common figures for dialogue embody Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump.

Beneath that, but additionally common figures for dialogue within the framework of the day by day information are senior Russian politicians equivalent to former president Dmitry Medvedev, who’s now the deputy head of Russia’s nationwide safety council, and defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Different common classes for dialogue are historic figures such because the Soviet leaders Josef Stalin and Vladimir Lenin in addition to the Russian poet and playwright, Alexander Pushkin.

The following tier of personalities contains modern cultural figures such because the Bulgarian-born Russian pop singer Philipp Kirkorov, and singer songwriter Yaroslav Yuryevich Dronov – higher identified by his stage identify Shaman) – each of whom are identified for his or her help of Russia’s struggle on Ukraine.

Politics to the fore

Whereas the first group, led by Putin himself, options common spikes for the likes of Biden, Trump and Macron, newsworthy Ukrainians together with the president, Volodymyr Zelensky and the mayor of Kyiv, former boxer Vitali Klitschko, additionally function recurrently.

Within the context of the struggle in Ukraine, Zelensky and Biden are sometimes framed by customers to help a story of exterior risk. This additionally helps legitimise Putin’s regime as he’s introduced because the particular person defending Russians from the threats introduced by these figures.

Biden’s assembly with Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, on February 22 – days after her husband’s demise – additionally supported this notion in that many individuals posting noticed this as proof that the west was ganging up with the regime’s enemies.

Amongst Russian politicians within the top-15 mentions, solely Medvedev and Shoigu are likely to get a glance in. Their mentions are likely to spike once they say one thing newsworthy – for instance Medvedev’s speech on February 22 when he mentioned Russia would push to occupy giant chunks of Ukraine and probably even Kyiv. Shoigu’s identify spiked across the time he was getting credit score for Russia’s seize of the important thing Ukrainian city of Avdiivka.

Besides, these figures obtain at most 8,000 to 9,000 mentions – 23 instances fewer than the kinds of numbers achieved by Putin. It highlights the shortage of seen political options to Putin’s management – and even an accepted succession – within the eyes of the Russian folks.

A watch on historical past

The common presence of key figures from Russian historical past – Lenin, Stalin but additionally the bogeyman of the second world struggle, Adolf Hitler – is suggestive of Russia’s complicated relationship with its previous. Sentiments of nostalgia, nationwide satisfaction and important reflection are intertwined and affect present political discourse.

Common reminders of Hitler and the Nazis performs into one of many favorite themes of Putin’s speeches, which is that Nazism as soon as once more threatens the peace-loving folks of Russia, significantly from Ukraine, whose management the Russian president recurrently condemns as a “gang of Nazis”.

Each day mentions of prime 13 folks on Russian social media not together with Putin and Navalny:

It’s, in fact, very tough to separate common social media dialogue from Kremlin-sponsored content material. Besides, if social media mentions are any indication of political sentiment in Russia, it’s not laborious to see how Putin has simply manipulated his approach to a fifth time period of workplace.

Learn extra:
What can we count on from six extra years of Vladimir Putin? An more and more weak and dysfunctional Russia