With the mud settled on the 2024 Irish basic election, consideration has turned to the negotiations which is able to result in the formation of the following coalition authorities. Regardless of ending in second place, with a seat tally of 39 (in a parliament of 174 seats), Sinn Féin is not going to be invited to these talks.
As a substitute, the get together is destined for one more stint on Dáil Éireann’s opposition benches. It will likely be tasked with holding some variant of a Fianna Fáil and Wonderful Gael-dominated administration to account.
Regardless of the efforts of some in Sinn Féin to spin the election in a optimistic gentle, the end result represents a big setback for the get together – and can immediate a lot soul-searching inside its ranks.
Sinn Féin’s vote share fell for the primary time in 35 years, down 5.5 share factors from its poll-topping 24.5% in 2020. That was the most important fall for any get together. In a proportional illustration voting system, it was additionally the one opposition get together to register a loss in first choice vote share.
Given the relative unpopularity of the outgoing authorities – and the broader image of incumbents being punished in most different elections in 2024 – Sinn Féin’s failure to make electoral hay will sting its supporters.
That sense of a possibility missed for Sinn Féin is compounded by the opinion ballot image in the course of the lifetime of the 2020-24 Irish parliament. In 2023 the get together was commonly sustaining over 35% within the polls, using a wave of fashionable disenchantment with the federal government. Sinn Féin appeared set to steer the following one, with the get together president, Mary Lou McDonald, claiming that she can be Eire’s first feminine Taoiseach, all being effectively.
Because it was, all would show not effectively. Sinn Féin’s ballot lead contracted sharply, reflecting each the volatility of the Irish voters and the fragility of the get together’s electoral coalition.
Whereas there are a number of causes for that outstanding hunch, the civil dysfunction in Dublin in November 2023 was particularly consequential. Sinn Féin’s dealing with of the immigration subject within the aftermath of these riots splintered its voter base. From then on, the get together struggled to revive its standing as a motion on the march, and as a reputable government-in-waiting.
Who leads Sinn Féin?
As with all get together that has skilled a loss in electoral assist, questions shall be requested of the management. Sinn Féin’s predilection for inner self-discipline, and its historical past of anointing quite than electing get together leaders, makes it troublesome to precisely gauge the safety of McDonald’s place.
Her popularity as an electoral asset has, nonetheless, been tremendously tarnished. In her Dublin Central constituency alone, Sinn Féin’s vote fell from 35.7% to 23.3%.
When she succeeded Gerry Adams as get together president in 2018, McDonald was broadly considered (and introduced) because the face of a brand new Sinn Féin, one which might put on its previous relationship with the IRA extra flippantly, and so may acquire assist from beforehand untapped electoral quarters.
Center class, with no IRA background, and broadly recognised as a formidable campaigner, McDonald was arguably the lynchpin in Sinn Féin’s drive in direction of a place of mainstream respectability and, so, energy in Eire.
The foremost cause why McDonald shall be feeling the strain now could be how Sinn Féin’s electoral underperformance undermines the get together’s raison d’etre: securing Irish reunification. Failure to get into authorities in Eire is equated with a failure to make progress on Irish unity.
Within the aftermath of Brexit, and with its aforementioned poll-bounce, a referendum on Eire’s constitutional standing was introduced by Sinn Féin as inevitable. The path of journey, the get together argued, was clear, and the momentum simple.
Within the wake of the 2024 election, that demand for a border ballot earlier than 2030 is an effective deal more durable to make. Conversations might effectively proceed round Irish unity, however concrete actions on the problem are unlikely to manifest in the course of the subsequent time period of presidency.
Sinn Féin due to this fact finds itself at a crucial juncture. The get together will not be used to going backwards. Certainly, for Sinn Féin, electoral setbacks are arguably extra existential than for many.
The republican motion’s shift from militarism to electoral politics within the Nineties – and its entry into authorities in Northern Eire following the 1998 Good Friday settlement – was primarily bought on the idea of it underpinning interminable progress in direction of Irish reunification.
Unchecked electoral advances by Sinn Féin, north and south of the Irish border, would, in response to the Adams peace technique, safe the motion’s final goal. Languishing in opposition exposes that technique to criticism. It’s probably then that Sinn Féin’s underwhelming efficiency within the 2024 election will set off a root-and-branch evaluation of the get together’s positioning, techniques, organisation and personnel.
