The latest loss of life of Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash won’t solely set off new presidential elections. Many commentators consider that Raisi was slated to turn into the subsequent supreme chief of Iran.
This place is on the coronary heart of the nation’s advanced political system. Whereas there are a lot of establishments concerned in governing Iran, the supreme chief has the ultimate say on most issues.
Actually, it is rather unlikely that Raisi would have succeeded the present supreme chief, Ali Khamenei. In keeping with the Iranian structure, the place requires each political capability and non secular credentials, having been modelled on the principle of the Guardianship of the Supreme Jurisprudent, which former chief Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini positioned on the coronary heart of the revolutionary structure of 1979.
Admittedly, when Khamenei succeeded the late Khomeini a decade later, the Iranian structure needed to be modified as a result of Khamenei didn’t have the required non secular standing within the clerical hierarchy. He was no ayatollah like Khomeini, so the Iranian structure was amended to focus on political competence over non secular legitimacy – although even this is able to not have been sufficient to legitimise the candidacy of Raisi.
For his half, Raisi was not even a mid-ranking cleric. He had no actual non secular clout and no political charisma. As such, it’s extremely unlikely that each the clerical and political institution would have accepted him because the supreme chief.
The Meeting of Consultants, the constitutional organ tasked with the election of the supreme chief, could also be dominated by so-called “conservatives” allied to a number of the factions that supported Raisi. However there are senior ayatollahs in Iran’s Shia equal to the Vatican, Qom, who’ve immense affect within the nation and past, and have a casual say within the query of succession.
In an Islamic republic pushed by theocratic politics, that clerical issue is clearly necessary, and there was no following for Raisi in Qom.
Neither was Raisi seen as somebody with a powerful political monitor report. The senior positions he held have been endowed to him by Khamenei. Furthermore, he was deeply concerned in a number of the most egregious human rights violations in Iran’s latest historical past, as he served on a panel answerable for doling out capital punishment to hundreds of political detainees in 1988. Raisi tried to distance himself from that position, however he by no means denied his involvement.
When Raisi did problem for public workplace as a presidential candidate within the 2017 election, he misplaced to Hassan Rouhani, who campaigned for higher relations with the world and for reforms at residence. The following election in June 2021, which lastly granted Raisi the presidency, was the least-contested within the historical past of the Islamic republic. No actual opposition was allowed.
In 2022, standard discontent with Iran’s more and more confined political area erupted within the “Girls, Life, Freedom” protest motion – a large outpouring of dissent. The lack of the Raisi administration to deal with these protests with no main eruption of state violence was yet one more indicator of his failure to stabilise Iranian politics.
His proclivity in direction of the hard-right marginalised numerous strata of Iran’s energetic civil society and the reformist political factions, too. This solely undermined the legitimacy of his authorities. Raisi was seen as a mere yea-sayer to Khamenei and his followers, who appeared to be the one factions holding on to him.
Learn extra: Iran: ‘hijab’ protests problem legitimacy of Islamic Republic
However Khamenei just isn’t a Khomeini. The latter had a huge following which delivered one of the seismic revolutions in latest historical past. For Khamenei, it’s far more troublesome to manoeuvre with impunity. As I specified by my ebook on Iran, if Khomeini was the “Lenin” of the Iranian revolution, Khamenei grew to become a mere prefect.
This compromised place, and the intricate clerical politics in Iran, additionally clarify why I don’t consider that Mojtaba Khamenei is more likely to succeed his father. The youthful Khamenei has no actual non secular credentials obligatory for the publish of supreme chief, and nor has he held any senior political positions – the second constitutional requirement.
Being the son of the present chief is one other drawback. A revolution in opposition to the idea of hereditary monarchy in Iran and past can’t afford such succession. As one of many final residing figures instantly concerned within the 1979 revolution, Ali Khamenei is conscious of this.
The subsequent chief of Iran
So, who will succeed the present chief? The reality is, nobody is aware of for positive, not even the political institution in Iran. The hypothesis exterior the nation, which is generally ill-informed, is pushed by the politics superimposed on the Iran narrative. In actuality, there’s a constitutional course of that’s not simply monopolised by one particular person alone – not even the present supreme chief.
The job description is obvious, although. The subsequent supreme chief of Iran can have a strong non secular standing that’s tolerated by the senior clerics of Qom, in addition to the clerical institution throughout the state.
He will likely be politically skilled but largely unsullied by main scandal. He can have the aura to be revered by the highly effective Revolutionary Guards, and he can have some revolutionary pedigree that binds him to Khomeini, the founding father of the Islamic Republic.
The brand new chief will even be on the coronary heart of the so-called “axis of resistance”, a conglomerate of actions scattered across the area from Palestine to southern Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. And he’ll inherit a nuclear infrastructure able to constructing an atomic bomb. So, the Iranian institution will even search for some competence in conducting worldwide relations.
Whoever subsequent leads modern-day Persia will turn into one of many main personalities of world politics – a mover and shaker of a radically altering world order. That’s the full magnitude of this place, which is able to decide the way forward for Iran, the area, and worldwide safety for generations to come back.
By Professor in World Thought and Comparative Philosophies, SOAS, College of London
