Israeli fighter jets fired missiles on the Iranian embassy in Syria’s capital Damascus earlier this week, killing senior navy commanders.
Tehran has mentioned it’ll retaliate, with specialists saying it has choices at its disposal with wide-ranging ramifications.
However why does Israel preserve launching air strikes on Syria and what is going to occur subsequent?
When did the assaults begin?
The Israeli navy has been often assaulting Syria for greater than a decade, benefiting from the nation’s chaos following its civil struggle that began in 2011.
The struggle has largely ended, and years of Iranian and Russian assist for the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have left him in energy over many of the nation.
However Syria stays torn, with numerous factions controlling completely different components of the nation, which offers Israel with a possibility to launch air strikes. As a Western-sanctioned al-Assad authorities is confronted with US-backed Kurdish forces, opposition forces, Turkish navy operations within the north, and ISIL (ISIS), Israel usually makes use of the occupied Golan Heights to launch assaults on Syria and Lebanon – with the al-Assad regime unable to stop it from doing so.
The assaults have solely intensified since 2017 – nearly changing into a weekly prevalence – to focus on rising Iranian and Hezbollah presence and affect in Syria.
Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Syria are allied towards Israel and its key navy and monetary backer, the US, together with armed and political teams in Iraq and Yemen in a so-called “axis of resistance”.
Why have been the most recent assaults vital?
Israel has launched two of its largest and deadliest strikes ever towards Syria prior to now week.
It has considerably elevated the frequency and depth of its assaults for the reason that begin of its brutal struggle on Gaza, freely focusing on Iran and its ally Hezbollah in Syria, particularly across the capital, Damascus, the place there’s a stronger presence.
Monday’s air strike utterly levelled the constructing of the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, killing seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), together with two generals who led the elite Quds Drive in Syria and Lebanon. Brigadier Common Mohammad Reza Zahedi was a key hyperlink between the IRGC and Hezbollah, having operated with Hezbollah leaders like Hassan Nasrallah and Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel, for many years.
This was the highest-ranked killing for the reason that assassination of Quds Drive commander Main Common Qassem Soleimani in an air strike by the US in Iraq in January 2020.
The blow to the IRGC comes after its pursuits have been repeatedly hit in Syria, with a strike in late December killing Razi Mousavi, one other high Quds Drive commander in Syria.
Simply days earlier than the assault on the Iranian consulate, the Israeli navy had launched large strikes on Syria’s northern province of Aleppo, killing at the least 40 folks, most of them troopers. The strikes appeared to hit a weapons depot, leading to a collection of huge explosions that additionally killed six fighters belonging to Hezbollah.
Will there be extra strikes in Syria?
Ramped-up Israeli air strikes on Syria are poised to proceed unimpeded because the struggle on Gaza – the present foremost driver of considerably heightened conflicts throughout the area – exhibits no speedy indicators of stopping regardless of the deaths of 33,000 Palestinians, and worldwide condemnation.
Air defences deployed by the Syrian navy usually interact and intercept a number of the assaults on the nation, however fail to utterly thwart them. Russia has strongly condemned the most recent Israeli air strikes however has indirectly moved to cease them.
Aron Lund, a fellow at US-based suppose tank Century Worldwide, says the bolder Israeli assaults are to a point a response to seemingly elevated Iranian arms deliveries to Hezbollah by way of Syria.
“However I feel extra usually it displays the Israelis taking the gloves off and placing much more effort into degrading Hezbollah and Iran’s logistics,” he advised Al Jazeera.
“The assault on the Iranian consulate is a part of that sample of extra aggressive Israeli focusing on. This was a diplomatic facility in central Damascus and the strike killed very senior Iranian generals.”
Will there be a wider battle?
Tehran is now underneath stress to answer the most recent Israeli assault, however it seeks to stability that with its acknowledged need all through the struggle on Gaza to chorus from increasing the battle throughout the area.
Century Worldwide’s Lund mentioned an Iranian response might vary from hitting an Israeli-linked ship or assaults in Iraqi Kurdistan to focusing on Israeli diplomatic missions overseas or extra assaults by the resistance axis on Israeli territory – to not point out a direct assault on Israel.
“However there are limits to how a lot harm Iran can do to Israel, with out utilizing instruments that would upset the stability of the battle, invite Israeli counter-escalation, and threat a slide right into a wider battle,” he mentioned.
As an illustration, a direct assault on Israel by Iran would seemingly immediate an Israeli assault on Iranian soil, whereas an escalation by Hezbollah might compound the dangers of a regional struggle, Lund mentioned.
“Iran might also begin to put extra stress on US troops within the area, as they’ve finished prior to now. It might be a method to do one thing seen and to incentivise US efforts to restrain Israel. However there are limits to how far they’ll need to go towards the People,” he mentioned, pointing to assaults on US pursuits dying down after a serious escalation in February.
But, Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Center East and North Africa programme on the European Council on Overseas Relations, mentioned the escalation from Israel will make it tough for Tehran to chorus from extra critical and direct retaliation.
“Over latest months, we’ve seen an Iranian need to maintain the scenario in examine and stop a broader unravelling and battle, however Tehran might now really feel compelled to reply extra forcefully to defend the credibility of its deterrence posture,” he advised Al Jazeera.
“Iran is unlikely to place a lot credence in Western public statements condemning the assault given continued robust backing for Israel, together with by the continued provision of weaponry that Israel is utilizing in Gaza and the area.”
